The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas said Friday it reduced the 2021 balance of payments surplus forecast to $1.6 billion from $4.1 billion, as growth prospects in some advanced economies were downgraded amid the high uncertainty over the global health crisis.
It said in a statement it considered the latest spikes in COVID-19 cases in some Euro areas and the recent emergence of the Omicron variant in the latest BOP forecast.
“These warrant continued vigilance of the Philippines’ major trade and investment partners,” it said.
The latest forecast for 2021 BOP surplus of $1.6 billion is equivalent to 0.4 percent of the gross domestic product, down from $4.1 billion (1.1 percent of GDP) in the September 2021 projection exercise.
The narrower BOP surplus reflects the projected reversal of the current account into a deficit in 2021 of $4.0 billion (-1.0 percent of GDP) from a surplus $3.5 billion (0.9 percent of GDP) in the previous projection arising from the foreseen further widening of the trade-in-goods deficit.