The Philippines and its fellow members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), along with their three major Asian trading partners, are expected to remain resilient despite an unprecedented global escalation of tariffs, the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) said Tuesday.
AMRO, an international organization established to contribute toward securing macroeconomic and financial resilience and stability in the ASEAN+3 region, forecast the Philippine economy would likely grow 6.3 percent annually in 2025 and 2026.
This would make it the second-fastest growing ASEAN economy, after Vietnam at 6.5 percent. Inflation in the Philippines is seen averaging 3.3 percent in 2025 and 3.2 percent in 2026.
AMRO said the growth forecast for the Philippines is higher than the average 4.3 percent growth projected for the ASEAN+3 region. The region is positioned to remain resilient with the policy space to cushion near-term shocks, it said.
The outlook for the region faces significant headwinds from unprecedented global tariff escalation, creating an unusually wide range of possible outcomes, the organization said. “Nevertheless, ASEAN+3 is positioned for resilience with growth increasingly driven by domestic demand, diversified export markets and policy space to manage risks,” it said.
“The announcement of elevated and broad-based tariffs by the U.S., and the developments since, have added significant layers of complexity to the ASEAN+3 region’s outlook,” said AMRO chief economist Hoe Ee Khor.
“Nevertheless, ASEAN+3 economies today are more resilient and diversified than during past global shocks and better positioned to navigate the unfolding tariff shock,” Khor said.
“Looking ahead, ASEAN+3’s collective economic resilience provides an important foundation for the region’s outlook in an increasingly fragmented global landscape. By deepening regional integration and policy coordination, regional economies can better withstand external challenges while creating new growth opportunities,” AMRO said.
Growth is expected to ease in 2025 and 2026, following the strong export recovery in 2024. Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam and Cambodia are projected to lead growth in the subregion, growing above the ASEAN average.
Other economies are likely to experience more moderate growth amid increased external headwinds. In Myanmar, economic activity is expected to remain subdued due to the continuing prolonged state of emergency, AMRO said.
The ASEAN+3 region faces a disproportionate impact from the US tariff measures, with 13 out of the 14 member economies subject to some of the highest effective tariff rates announced on April 2, with a trade-weighted average estimated at 26 percent excluding China, AMRO said.