The Philippines is set to become one of Asia’s fastest-growing trade hubs, according to the latest DHL Trade Atlas Report 2025.
DHL Express Asia Pacific chief executive Ken Lee said in a virtual regional briefing Friday that global trade is expected to grow at a slightly faster pace over the next five years despite the economic uncertainties.
He said these uncertainties are driving more resilient and diverse supply chains, benefiting economies like the Philippines.
“India, Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines are set to be the future growth leaders. The region, particularly South Asia and Southeast Asia, is positioned for much faster trade volume growth than other parts of the world,” Lee said.
Forecasts indicate that between 2024 and 2029, the Philippines will rank among the top 30 globally in both speed and scale of trade growth, alongside India, Vietnam and Indonesia.
The Philippines is also expected to leap 114 positions to rank 15th on the speed dimension, and rise from 68th to 30th on the scale dimension.
The surge is attributed to the country’s ability to capitalize on supply chain shifts and diversification strategies.
Steven A. Altman, senior research scholar and director of the DHL Initiative on Globalization at NYU Stern, said the Philippines is forecast to achieve a 7.4-percent compounded annual trade volume growth rate over the next five years.
He said that in absolute volume terms, this translates into an estimated increase of $88 billion in trade value.
Altman said that while geopolitical tensions such as declining trade between the US and China have slightly shifted global trade patterns, overall trade remains on an upward trajectory, albeit slower.
“The world economy is far from a complete split along geopolitical lines. Instead, we’re seeing record-high average trade distances, reflecting the sustained interconnectedness of global markets,” Altman said.
The report noted that while the US-China trade tensions contributed to a decrease in direct trade between the two nations—from 3.5 percent of global trade in 2016 to 2.6 percent in 2024—the overall impact on global trade remains limited.
The DHL Trade Atlas Report also highlighted global trade trends. It projected a modest acceleration in global trade growth over the next five years compared to the previous decade.