Both the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) expect the Philippine economy to grow more than 6 percent annually in 2025 and 2026 despite the global challenges.
The World Bank, in its January Global Economic Prospects, predicted that the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) would expand by 6.1 percent in 2025 and 6.0 percent in 2026.
The IMF is more optimistic, as it maintained its growth projections for the Philippines at 6.1 percent in 2025 and 6.3 percent in 2026, following an estimated 5.8-percent expansion in 2024.
Both forecasts are within the Development Budget and Coordination Committee’s (DBCC) targets of 6 percent to 8 percent from 2025 to 2028.
Data from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) showed that in the first three quarters of 2024, GDP growth averaged 5.8 percent, below the government’s target.
The World Bank also projected that growth in East Asia and Pacific would slow to 4.6 percent in 2025 and 4.1 percent in 2026, owing to a further deceleration in China.
Growth in EAP excluding China is expected to edge up to 4.9 percent in 2025 before settling at 4.7 percent in 2026, reflecting buoyant growth in many major economies.
Compared with June projections, growth in EAP is expected to be 0.4 percentage point higher in 2025, partly reflecting policy support in China and strong economic momentum in some major economies.
“Risks to the regional outlook remain tilted to the downside and centered on adverse global policy shifts and weaker-than-expected growth in China—with spillovers to other countries in the region,” World Bank said.
“Prospects for U.S. growth, global inflation, and monetary policy remain uncertain and subject to both upside and downside risks, the materialization of which could boost or dampen EAP activity,” it said.
The global economy is projected to expand by 2.7 percent in both 2025 and 2026, the same pace as in 2024, as inflation and interest rates decline gradually.
Meanwhile, the IMF sees global growth at 3.3 percent both in 2025 and 2026, below the historical (2000–19) average of 3.7 percent. The forecast for 2025 is broadly unchanged from that in the October 2024 World Economic Outlook (WEO), primarily on account of an upward revision in the United States offsetting downward revisions in other major economies.
Global headline inflation is expected to decline to 4.2 percent in 2025 and to 3.5 percent in 2026, converging back to target earlier in advanced economies than in emerging market and developing economies, the IMF said.