The Philippines is expected to maintain a sufficient rice supply of 3.83 million metric tons by end-2024, covering about 100 days of consumption despite the anticipated production losses due to La Niña and other weather-related factors.
“Despite the production decline, we are confident that the country’s rice needs will be met. Our projection is based on updated stock data, actual import arrivals, and historical trends,” said Agriculture Undersecretary for rice industry programs Christopher Morales.
The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) forecasts an 11.9-percent decrease in palay production in the third quarter of 2024 to 3.35 million metric tons due to typhoon damage.
Higher production yields helped mitigate the decline on increased utilization of improved seeds, farm equipment and support from the Rice Tariffication Law and the National Rice Program, said Morales.
Morales said that with a projected loss of 358,000 metric tons, total annual palay production is expected to reach 19.41 million metric tons, translating to about 12.69 million tons of milled rice.
Despite the production drop, the national rice supply remains robust. As of Oct. 14, 2024, the Philippines imported 3.57 million MT of rice, up by 24 percent from the previous year.
The recent reduction in tariff rates further incentivized imports, ensuring greater access to global rice markets and mitigating potential shortages.
Experts said the combination of imports and effective domestic production management would help the Philippines remain resilient in the face of climatic challenges.
