The government approved the reduction in the 2024 economic growth targets, according to National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) Secretary Arsenio Balisacan
“The President and the Cabinet confirmed the macroeconomic targets approved by the Development Budget Coordination Committee or DBCC during its 187th meeting last March 22, 2024. The revised targets for our headline indicators considered the country’s recent economic performance in FY 2023 and reflect the latest developments and expectations on external factors such as global demand and trade growth, oil price movements, and expected exchange rate and inflation trends,” Balisacan said in a briefing.
The DBCC particularly revised the 2024 gross domestic product (GDP) growth target to a range of 6.0 percent to 7.0 percent from the earlier estimate of 6.5 percent to 7.5 percent. The DBCC also revised the growth target for 2025 to 6.5 percent to 7.5 percent from 6.5 percent to 8.0 percent and retained the target of 6.5 percent to 8.0 percent for 2026 to 2028.
“Robust macroeconomic fundamentals will support this growth trajectory. These growth targets will sustain the country’s position as one of the fastest-growing emerging economies in the Asia Pacific region,” said Balisacan.
“At this pace of growth, we are still on track to reducing poverty incidence from 18.1 percent in 2021 to single-digit level in 2028,” he said.
Meanwhile, the government maintained the inflation target at 2.0 percent to 4.0 percent for 2024 through 2028, following its assessment of recent internal and external developments that affect the prices of major commodity groups.
The inflation outlook considers the monetary policy actions the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas is undertaking and the non-monetary strategies and measures the government is implementing, said Balisacan.
The updated Medium-Term Fiscal Program, or MTFP, provides a more gradual but practical fiscal trajectory for the next few years.
Balisacan said the government would further improve its performance through enhanced tax administration reforms focused on modernizing and enhancing the efficiency of the Philippine tax system.
“We will complement these measures by working with Congress to pass priority tax reform measures to recalibrate and further improve revenue mobilization and ultimately be more attuned to the country’s fiscal requirements and current domestic developments,” he said.
“With these expected reforms, we project revenues to reach P4.270 trillion (16.1 percent of GDP) in 2024 and rise to P6.078 trillion (16.4 percent of GDP) by 2028.
The deficit-to-GDP ratio is seen to fall from 5.6 percent in 2024 to 3.7 percent by 2028, leading to an expected debt-to-GDP ratio of 60.3 percent in 2024 and 55.9 percent by 2028.
Meanwhile, the government’s disbursement program will remain at about 20 percent of GDP or an expected P5.75 trillion in 2024 and P7.45 trillion by 2028, he said.
The DBCC proposed a national budget of P6.2 trillion for 2025, with spending to remain focused on delivering high-impact and transformative public infrastructure projects and essential social services, especially for the poor and vulnerable.
Balisacan said the budget would support the Marcos administration’s Build-Better-More Program to stay on course and maintain infrastructure spending between 5 percent and 6 percent of GDP from 2024 through 2028.
“Despite the anticipated risks, we remain optimistic about the country’s sustained growth momentum as we strive for better development outcomes. We aspire to position the Philippines as a frontrunner within our region and beyond—a beacon of inclusive progress and resilience,” Balisacan said.