The Philippines is still at “moderate” risk for COVID-19 despite the decline in recent cases, the Department of Health (DOH) said on Monday.
During a press briefing, Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire said the country’s two-week growth rate decreased to -21 percent, with an average daily attack rate (ADAR) of 14.73 cases per 100,000 population.
ADAR is the number of new cases over a two-week period, divided by the population.
Meanwhile, Vergeire said the country’s health systems capacity remained at high risk, with intensive care unit (ICU) utilization at 73.20 percent.
Vergeire also said that Metro Manila was showing a downward trend in COVID-19 cases but is still classified under “moderate” risk for the disease.
The National Capital Region’s two-week growth rate decreased to 33 percent, with an average daily attack rate of 26.64 cases per 100,000 population.
But Metro Manila’s health systems capacity remained at high risk with ICU utilization at 75 percent, she said.
Vergeire said coronavirus infections in Metro Manila peaked on Sept. 5 to 11, which posted a daily average of 5,714 cases.
Vergeire said Metro Manila then showed a slow downward trend with reported cases decreasing by 28 percent against the previous 7 days.
The NCR had 3,121 average daily cases on Sept. 27 to Oct. 3, compared to 4,320 on Sept. 20 to 26.
With nearly 2.6 million coronavirus infections and more than 38,000 deaths, the Philippines has the second-worst coronavirus outbreak in Southeast Asia after Indonesia. It currently has 112,008 active cases of COVID-19.
The OCTA Research Group said on Monday that the NCR is now at moderate risk for COVID-19 with an average daily attack rate of 22.34.
The group said the seven-day average of new cases in NCR decreased by 28 percent to 3,120 while the reproduction number in the region also decreased to 0.81 from 0.84, said OCTA fellow Guido David.
A reproduction number of one or higher is an indication of the continuous transmission of the virus. Conversely, a number below 1 indicates infections are slowing down.
OCTA said the positivity rate in the region also decreased to 16 percent.
The DOH said testing output for COVID-19 in 14 regions has gone down in the last two weeks, with the largest decline reported in Metro Manila.
“We’ve observed that 14 regions had fewer RT-PCR tests done in the recent week versus the previous week,” Vergeire said in a press briefing.
NCR logged the “largest decline” in testing output, with a positive rate of 16.4 percent in the recent week compared to previous week’s 19.3 percent, said Vergeire.
Due to this, the number of positive cases also decreased from 48,229 to 35,603.
“We are still assessing the reasons for this decline and if this reflects a true decline in cases or is affected by other factors such as ongoing active case finding and contact tracing and the use of rapid antigen test to complement the RT-PCR testing,” Vergeire said.
The undersecretary added that six local governments in the NCR reported a decrease in tests during the last two weeks.
“Of these, four local governments reported a general decrease in the case trend and, by extension, contacts detected: Caloocan, Pasig, Pateros, and Mandaluyong,” she said.
“Parañaque cited a decrease in testing capacity by the Research Institute for Tropical Medicine as a reason for the decrease in their tests reported. Only Pasay reported a decrease in tests due to the shift to antigen tests,” she added.
Vergeire also stressed the need to address the decrease in testing output to validate the decrease in cases.
The Health Undersecretary also reported that the number of new COVID-19 cases in NCR Plus areas and Luzon were trending downwards.
According to Vergeire, 14,705 cases per day were recorded in the recent week, lower by 3,060 cases or 17 percent from the previous week.
Meanwhile, a surge in COVID-19 cases in Negros is expected to worsen by mid-October, the head of Bacolod City’s end-referral hospital said Monday in a TV interview.
The Corazon Locsin Montelibano Memorial Regional Hospital, the only level 3 hospital in Negros Island, has 85 percent occupancy rate, said its medical chief Dr. Julius Drilon, during an interview on ABS-CBN’s Teleradyo.
“We haven’t seen the worst yet. We expect in mid-October it will worsen,” he said.
“Our oxygen consumption is around 250 tanks per day despite our oxygen generating plant. A lot of our fellow health care workers are also affected,” he said.
Some 45 of the hospital’s medical workers have tested positive for COVID-19 while 75 others are in quarantine, Drilon said.
“It greatly affected our manpower complement in our bed allocation,” he said.
The DOH on Monday reported there are 21 new cases of the more contagious Delta variant, bringing the total Delta cases in the country to 3,387.
Vergeire said a total of 749 samples taken from April to June were sequenced.
Of these, 288 or 38.5 percent are Alpha variant cases, 309 cases or 41.3 percent are Beta variant cases, while 21 or 2.8 percent are Delta variant cases.
