The economy is recovering from the impact of the coronavirus pandemic as shown by the merchandise trade figures in October, Finance Undersecretary and chief economist Gil Beltran said over the weekend.
Beltran, in an economic bulletin, cited data showing that merchandise trade dipped just 12.6 percent in October from a 59.5-percent decline in April,
He said the figures reflected “economic recovery as the country eased lockdown measures intended to curb the pandemic.”
Exports followed the same trend, bottoming at 49.9-percent decline in April and dropping just 2.2 percent in October. Imports also showed improving numbers, from -65.3 percent in April to -19.5 percent in October, he said.
“This recovery in trade is also seen in the improvement in the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index of recent months from the low of 31.6 in April,” he said.
“Recovery is not smooth, however; September numbers for merchandise trade and PMI are better than in October. As long as lockdowns are in place, there will be hesitation on the part of consumers and investors to behave like they did before March,” Beltran said.
Beltran said good macroeconomic fundamentals had cushioned the impact of the coronavirus pandemic. He said with a vaccine in sight, continuing the prudent, calibrated reopening of key sectors of the economy would be key to the recovery of the economy in general and trade in particular.
He said the government should continue to adopt economic reforms, in addition to infrastructure program, to attract more investments. He said the approval of CREATE and FIST bills in the Senate were welcome news and would help in decreasing the burden on businesses, once signed into law.
Other reforms such as the amendments to the Commonwealth-era Public Service Act and the Retail Trade Liberalization Act, could also help the country weather and recover from the impacts of the coronavirus pandemic, he said.
“Furthermore, improvements in ease of doing business improvements will also be important in adapting to the new normal,” Beltran said.
The interagency Development Budget Coordinating Committee earlier said the economy might contract between -8.5 percent and -9.5 percent this year because of the prolonged impact of the pandemic.
It said that despite a lower projection than what was initially adopted in July 2020, the further relaxation of restrictions would keep the economy on the right track towards full recovery.
The gross domestic product is projected to bounce back with a growth of 6.5 percent to 7.5 percent in 2021 and 8 percent to 10 percent in 2022.
The GDP grew by 6 percent in 2019.