"You will get your COVID vaccine after five years."
"You will get your COVID vaccine after five years."
The surgeon general of the United States has told Americans: Hang in there. Don’t die. Half of America is waiting for a vaccine. The other half don’t want it.
The US now has 15.36 million COVID cases; 290,443 have died from it. Among 218 countries ravaged by COVID, the US is No.1. With 331.84 million people, the US has 4.25 percent of the world’s population of 7.8 billion. Yet, US has 22.8 percent of the world’s 67.938 million COVID cases and 18.7 percent of the world’s 1.55 million COVID deaths. Every day, 1,508 Americans die from COVID (as of Dec. 7, 2020) —an improvement from the record 2,926 deaths per day on Dec. 3.
How did the US, the world’s most advanced– in technology, science, medicine, and military arsenal –come to such a rut? Simple answer: Incompetence, by its leader.
Yet, per Nature magazine, the US is No. 2 in the world in doses of anti-COVID vaccines ordered, per capita—2.2 doses for each American. No. 1 in the vaccine grab is Canada, with eight doses per Canadian. Third is UK, 4.7 doses per person. The rest of the world? Zero. That includes the Philippines.
The Philippines, as of Dec. 7, has 441,399 COVID cases (No. 27 in the world and No. 2 in ASEAN) and 8,572 deaths (No. 29 in the world). Per government announcements, COVID vaccines will come to Manila at the earliest in the second quarter of 2021, between April and June. It’s a token order, just 2.6 million, good for 1.3 million people—half in government and half in the private sector. What happens to the rest of 109 million Filipinos? According to a certain general, they may have to wait for as long as five years.
The advice then to Filipinos: Hang in there. Don’t get sick and don’t die. A vaccine is coming, after 2022, when a new Philippine president is elected.
How did the Philippines come to such a rut? Simple answer: Incompetence.
At least, in Donald Trump’s case, he ordered COVID vaccine development as early as March 2020, under Operation Warp Speed. The US has spent over $10 billion for the effort. A successful vaccine was developed—two weeks after the Nov. 3, 2020 US presidential election. Too late to rescue Trump from defeat.
In Rodrigo Duterte’s case, he ordered vaccines only this December. He hasn’t released a single centavo for his order. Why? There is nothing to buy any more. And only now is the government lining up the money, an initial P73 billion, most of it borrowed money.
The world’s richest countries have grabbed most of the vaccines to be produced between now and 2021 and beyond. Duterte’s reaction, in effect, has been to scare the world. If you don’t give us vaccines, we will infect you.
According to Nature, “the makers of the three vaccines that seem closest to widespread distribution — AstraZeneca, Pfizer and Moderna — estimate a total production capacity of 5.3 billion doses for 2021, which could cover between 2.6 billion and 3.1 billion people, depending on whether AstraZeneca’s vaccine is administered in two doses or one and a half. And a vaccine created at the Gamaleya National Center of Epidemiology and Microbiology in Moscow could cover another 500 million people per year outside Russia from 2021.”
With a delayed vaccine rollout, the Philippines top economic agencies—the Department of Finance, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, Department of the Budget, and NEDA—collectively have admitted to a much bigger contraction in the economy.
This year, the economy, as measured by the GDP growth rate, will contract by between -8.5 and -9.5 percent, much higher than the -5.5 and -6.5 percent projected contraction made in July 2020, and -2 and -3.4 percent contraction made in April, also this year, for the whole of 2020.
A 9.5 percent contraction on a P19 trillion value of annual economic production means a reduction of P1.8 trillion. If P2 million could create one job, a P1.9-trillion loss of income in GDP terms would mean 900,000 jobs gone for good. With a shrinking economy, unemployment has more than doubled, from 4.5 percent in 2019 to 10 percent by the second quarter of 2020.
Why has the economy shrunk so badly? Duterte has imposed the world’s longest and harshest lockdown enforced by his generals all of whom know no better about pandemics than your ordinary taho vendor across the street.
The lockdowns killed consumption which is 73 percent of the economy. Consumption is when you go out, eat, shop, enjoy entertainment. The lockdowns were supposed to give the health system breathing space to treat and trace COVID victims. The trouble is that the Philippines has no health system to speak of.
Yes, we have a Department of Health and a PhilHealth insurance. Both are hobbled by incompetence and corruption and by lack of trust by the general public.
Among the six major countries of ASEAN, the Philippines has spent the least, per capita, for COVID response– $202.95. Singapore has spent $15,809; Malaysia $2,562; Thailand $1,211; Indonesia $432.54; and Vietnam $277.40. “May pera ako,” Duterte said while COVID raged. Asan?
In managing a pandemic, there are basic Ts—treat, trace, and trust. Just like the vaccine, all three are in inadequate supply.
In the meantime, Duterte’s advice to Filipinos: Don’t gather for this Christmas. COVID, not carols, is in the air.
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