Researchers from the University of the Philippines say COVID-19 cases may reach 375,000 by the end of September.
In their Aug. 27 forecast, the UP-OCTA team of consultants said the reproduction number of COVID-19 and the number of new cases per day have both decreased near the end of August.
The reproduction number, which indicates the average number of people who may contract COVID-19 from an infected person, is at 1.03 from Aug. 20 to 26, they said.
The UP-OCTA group said the ideal reproduction number is less than one, in which each existing infection causes fewer than one new infection and means “the disease will decline and eventually die out.”
They also said that the average number of daily new cases was 4,073 from Aug.19 to 25, lower than 4,300 in the previous week.
This trend is also true for the National Capital Region, where there was a surge last July, they said.
The UP-OCTA Researh Team said the average number of daily new cases in Metro Manila was at 2,192 from Aug. 21 to 27, down from 2,684 in the previous week.
The reproduction number there has fallen below one at 0.95, they said.
The positivity rate has also decreased from 16 percent to 14 percent in the last two weeks.
Hospital bed and ICU occupancy rates in Metro Manila have also decreased, but the researchers said at least nine cities are still at critical level.
The researchers projected 180,000 to 210,000 COVID-19 cases in the NCR by Sept. 30.
The Philippines has logged a total of 209,544 confirmed COVID-19 cases as the Department of Health (DOH) reported 3,999 more infections on Friday.
Most of the additional cases, culled from data from 101 out of 110 laboratories, were from National Capital Region (2,097 cases).
With 510 additional recovered patients and 91 additional COVID-related deaths, there are now 71,745 active cases in the country. Active cases refer to patients who are still infected with COVID-19 and are staying either in hospital or under home quarantine.
It is the third day that additional COVID-19 deaths are just below 100.
The total number of recoveries, meanwhile, is at 134,474 with 510 new recoveries logged.
The COVID-19 death toll rose to 3,325, with 91 new fatalities.
The Philippines has been logging record-high numbers in terms of new COVID-19 cases since late July, following the easing of quarantine measures and the gradual reopening of the economy.
At the same time, Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire said Filipinos should not expect cases to go down due to the imposition of a stricter two-week modified enhanced community quarantine (MECQ) in Metro Manila and nearby provinces earlier this month.
The shift from looser general quarantine was made following appeals from exhausted health care workers for a time out.
“That’s not the very objective why we did that. We did that to give our health care workers a breather. We took this time to recalibrate our strategies,” she said.
She said the DOH was able to start the One Hospital Command system and the CODE strategy at the time. The One Hospital Command is supposed to improve the coordination of hospitals to ensure that patients are properly endorsed and admitted, while the CODE strategy is meant to help local government units address local infections.
An infectious disease expert, meanwhile, said the number of COVID-19 cases in the Philippines has stabilized, but there has been no significant reduction yet.
Dr. Rontgene Solante of San Lazaro Hospital said there has also been a significant decrease in the number of COVID-19 deaths.
Solante expressed hope that the country would have the antigen saliva test kits using saliva as a specimen for testing an individual for COVID-19.
Vergeire earlier said that using saliva as a specimen for COVID-19 test is still under study.
Also on Friday, the DOH said 6,735 health care workers had contracted COVID-19 as of Aug. 26, 90.1 percent or 6,070 of whom have recovered. Forty of them, or 0.6 percent, have died.
Some 625 are active cases.
Of these active cases, 407 or 65.1 percent were mild cases, 213 or 34.1 percent were asymptomatic, and three or 0.5 percent were in severe condition.
Also, two or 0.3 percent were in critical condition, the DOH reported.
The DOH said it has released the P1 million death benefit for 31 health care workers who died from COVID-19.
Vergeire, in an online press briefing, said the deaths of 22 more are still being evaluated.
Meanwhile, 36 health care workers who suffered from severe and critical COVID-19 have also received their benefits in checks amounting to P100,000 each.
The sickness and death benefits were mandated by the now-expired Bayanihan to Heal as One Act. Its second version, the Bayanihan to Recover as One Act, which is awaiting President Rodrigo Duterte’s signature, also provides for P15,000 sickness benefit for health workers with mild and moderate COVID-19.
