The total number of COVID-19 cases could hit 40,000 by June 30, a University of the Philippines mathematics professor consulting with the Inter-Agency Task Force on the Management of Emerging Infectious Diseases (IATF) said Thursday.
The total number of cases stood at 24,175 yesterday, with 253 “fresh” cases and 190 late cases.
In a forum on Thursday, Institute of Mathematics Assistant Professor Guido David and Department of Political Science Assistant Professor Ranjit Singh Rye presented data on the transmission of the virus.
“The projection is 40,000 cases by June,” David said, noting that the estimate was based on the current trend of transmission.
If the R0, pronounced R-naught, or the average number of secondary infections from a single case is less than 1, the epidemic curve is flattening, but a number higher than 1 means the virus is spreading, David said.
READ: NCR may remain in GCQ till June 30
With an R0 of 1.2, the country would have 40,000 cases by June 30, he said, but this could be lower if the trend is decreasing.
David presented data that shows the country’s R0 in early April was above 2 but eventually dropped to about 1, then rose to 2 again by the end of May before slowing down to 1.2 in the entire Philippines.
Ranjit Singh Rye, associate professor at the UP Department of Political Science, warned that the threat of Covid-19 is still present.
“It’s still a significant number that the government must take seriously and (must consider to) design appropriate and timely measures to respond to,” he said.
He said it was significant for the government to look at this number and “scale up” its strategies for testing, tracing and treatment.
He noted that contact tracing remains the Philippines’ “weakest link” as far as the strategy against the disease is concerned.
“I think the government is responding by hiring more and more personnel. (Meanwhile) on an individual level, we need to improve our strategies for social distancing,” he said.
Malacanang on Thursday said that the fresh confirmed cases of COVID-19 was not a result of the relaxation of quarantine protocols in many parts of the country, including Metro Manila, but mainly due to the delayed release of tests conducted by the Department of Health (DOH).
READ: PH virus cases near 24,000
Palace spokesman Harry Roque said President Duterte will meet with the members of the IATF on Monday and will decide whether the National Capital Region, Cebu and Mandaue would be shifted to modified general community quarantine, (MGCQ) or stay in a general community quarantine.
Roque said that roughly 500 new COVID-19 cases per day were being reported as the current quarantine classification in the country near its end-date on June 15.
Roque said while the rise of the cases was not inspiring, the decision was still up to Duterte.
“It doesn’t really inspire a relaxation of quarantine rules at this point,” he said.
“The announcement is subject to appeal and will be announced by the President,” he added.
The Palace official also appealed to the public to wait for the President’s announcement on Monday, June 14, and not easily believe any document that would surface on social media in the next few days.
“To those who are leaking documents, please let the President make the announcement. Let’s not preempt him,” he said.
Roque also said the IATF’s recommendations are not yet final.
The President was supposed to meet with the IATF in Davao City on Thursday but this was moved to June 15.
As of Wednesday, the Philippines recorded 23,732 cases, with 1,027 deaths and 4,895 recoveries.
In related developments:
• The IATF has approved a recommendation to allow restaurants in GCQ areas to partially resume dine-in services starting June 15, Trade Secretary Ramon Lopez said. “We are doing this essentially in the interest of workers so they can get back to work. We shall be doing this on a gradual basis starting at a 30 percent operating capacity,” Lopez told CNN Philippines. He said social distancing by spacing tables 1.5 meters apart and installing acrylic or clear barriers in between customers should be done. Other health protocols, such as wearing of masks and disinfection, must also be observed.
• Tourism Secretary Bernadette Romulo-Puyat said Boracay and the Bohol islands are expected to be the first tourist destinations to reopen. Boracay remains free of COVID-19 while Bohol has only one recorded case, Puyat said.