Economists expect inflation to have inched up in October on the back of higher food and electricity prices and a weaker peso, but the rate likely remained below the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) 2 percent to 4 percent target range.
Four out of six economists polled by Manila Standard projected faster inflation in October, compared to 1.7 percent in September.
This is in line with the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) projection that inflation likely settled between 1.4 percent and 2.2 percent in October. The mid-point of the BSP’s forecast range is 1.8 percent, which is slightly higher than September’s 1.7 percent.
Bank of the Philippine Islands lead economist Jun Neri said headline inflation likely rose to 1.8 percent in October on the back of higher costs of rice, vegetables, fish and electricity, along with a weaker peso.
“Upside risks to inflation are building as favorable rice base effects fade and the extension of the rice import suspension through year-end adds further pressure,” said Neri.
Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. chief economist Michael Ricafort projected inflation likely settled at 1.8 percent, noting offsetting risks from potentially volatile global oil prices, a stronger dollar and transitory increase in food prices after the onslaught of calamities in the second half of the year.
“Relatively benign inflation, but could possibly pick up to slightly below 2 percent levels for the rest of 2025 up to February 2026, with the 0.9 percent in July 2025 [already being] the bottom amid higher CPI base effects back then; to be followed by easing CPI base that would mathematically lead to some pick up in year-on-year inflation for the coming months,” said Ricafort.
Reyes Tacandong & Co. senior adviser Jonathan Ravelas also pegged October inflation at 1.8 percent, driven by transport and select food items.
Metrobank chief economist Nicholas Mapa sees inflation at 1.9 percent due to base effects. He said downside pressure is driven by rice inflation, while upside pressure could be driven by other food and utility costs.
Oikonomia Advisory and Research Inc. economist Matt Erece, however, expects inflation to have settled at 1.7 percent in October, citing lower oil, electricity and food prices despite higher economic activity with the upcoming holiday season.
Erece said inflation could accelerate in the last two months of 2025 due to higher incomes and higher spending.
Union Bank of the Philippines chief economist Ruben Carlo Asuncion forecast October inflation to settle at 1.6 percent due to base effects and modest price adjustments.
Some key drivers to the outlook include higher power generation charges, mild upward pressure from supply constraints and import suspension, mixed fuel price movements with late-month hikes and peso depreciation that slightly passed-through to tradable goods and power costs.
Three economists expect full-year inflation to stay below the BSP’s 2 percent to 4 percent target.
Neri sees inflation hovering around 2 percent through December, before rising above 3 percent in the first half of 2026 due to base effects, wage increases and potential supply disruptions.
Ricafort forecasts a 1.7-percent average. Meanwhile, Erece also expects inflation to remain below 2 percent despite holiday spending.
