Monday, May 18, 2026
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Middle East conflict unlikely to shake status quo in Indo-Pacific

The leadership of the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) remains optimistic that China will not take advantage of prevailing tensions in the Middle East to advance its agenda in waters closer to home.

AFP Chief of Staff Gen. Romeo Brawner Jr. made this remark even as he disclosed that he has convened his battle staff to start discussing contingency plans should there be an “overflow of violence” from that part of the globe.

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“Even if it’s very far away, it will have effects on the Philippines,” he said aboard JS Ise in Port Area, Manila.

“We’re hoping China won’t take advantage of the situation,” Brawner added.

However, the AFP chief said contingency measures are in the works, among which is the conservation of fuel given rising petroleum prices and fears of supply disruptions.

“If there is an overflow of violence or whatever conflict is happening in the Middle East to Asia, we might be affected. We have to have contingency plans,” Brawner explained.

 “We can’t be wasteful of our resources. Our patrols have to be purposeful… We have to put in measures to save on petroleum,” he noted.

Brawner also expressed confidence that Washington would not lose its focus on the Indo-Pacific region, its declared priority theater, despite the developments in the Middle East, “because they have enough forces in the region.”

US Navy aircraft carrier USS Nimitz was operating in the South China Sea when it was recently diverted to the Middle East because of the Israel-Iran conflict. The American carrier was supposed to make a port call in Vietnam and host a reception on June 20.

Philippines and China have a long-standing dispute over the West Philippine Sea, resulting in a series of aggressions on the latter.

China last week hit Philippine civilian vessels with water cannons during its fuel and goods distribution in Panatag Shoal.

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