Stocks closed slightly higher Tuesday as investors took positive cues from Wall Street’s overnight performance.
The benchmark Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) climbed 9.30 points, or 0.14 percent, to close at 6,618.52, while the broader all-shares index inched up by 4.17 points, or 0.12 percent, to finish at 3,503.68.
Philstocks Financial Inc. research analyst Mikhail Ploplenio said the positive labor data also boosted the local market.
The Philippine Statistics Authority reported that unemployment rate declined to 3.6 percent in November 2023 from 4.2 percent in October.
Financial and property emerged as the only gainers among the sector indices, on expectations that interest rates will start coming down this year.
Total value turnover improved to P5.7 billion, as foreign investors turned into net buyers.
Meanwhile, the peso slid to 56.01 against the US dollar Tuesday from 55.69 Monday.
Bank of the Philippine Islands said, however, it expects the local currency to appreciate in 2024, contingent on what the US Federal Reserve will do. “While a Fed cut might lead to peso appreciation, its gains are likely to be smaller compared to other emerging market currencies given the substantial current account deficit of the country. Our year-end US dollar-peso forecast for 2024 is 53.800,” the bank said.
Most Asian markets enjoyed a much-needed bounce Tuesday after a dour start to the year, with Tokyo notching a three-decade high as traders tracked a rally on Wall Street.
The advances came as traders try to ascertain the Federal Reserve’s plans for interest rates this year, with focus firmly on the release this week of key inflation data.
The outlook was given a boost by Monday’s plunge in oil prices—a key driver of inflation—after Saudi Arabian giant Aramco announced a cut of $2 a barrel as it looks to regain lost market share.
Equities have stumbled into the new year as a rally at the end of 2023 came to an end on worries that investors may have been too optimistic that the Fed will slash interest rates as soon as March.
Confidence was given a jolt last week when minutes from the bank’s December policy meeting showed decision-makers were happy to keep rates at two-decade highs for some time to make sure they defeat inflation.
That was followed by a forecast-busting jobs report that showed the labor market remained in rude health, reinforcing the Fed view that there was still much work to do before officials could call mission accomplished.
Still, Fed governor Michelle Bowman said rates were at the level needed to bring inflation down to the bank’s two percent target.
“Should inflation continue to fall closer to our two percent goal over time, it will eventually become appropriate to begin the process of lowering our policy rate to prevent policy from becoming overly restrictive,” she said in prepared remarks at the South Carolina Bankers Association.
With eyes on the upcoming consumer price index figures, SPI Asset Management’s Stephen Innes said: “If current cooling estimates hold, the month-on-month increase is anticipated to be 0.3 percent, marking the slowest pace of annual core price growth since May 2021.
“This is expected to be perceived positively for risk markets, reinforcing the optimism for market-based rate cuts.”
On Wall Street, all three main indexes powered higher, with the Nasdaq up more than two percent.
And most of Asia picked up the baton, helped by hints from the People’s Bank of China that it was considering fresh easing measures, including a cut in how much banks must keep in reserve in order to boost lending.
Tokyo hit its highest level since 1990, while there were also gains in Shanghai, Sydney, Singapore, Mumbai, Manila, Bangkok and Wellington. Hong Kong, however, ended down as traders failed to maintain early strong momentum, while Seoul also dipped.
London, Frankfurt and Paris opened slightly higher.
Oil prices edged up marginally after Monday’s steep losses that came after Aramco’s move, which fanned concerns that supply was far outstripping demand, particularly with China’s economy still struggling.
The commodity in 2023 suffered its first annual loss since Covid-ravaged 2020 as non-OPEC+ producers filled in for output lost through cuts by Riyadh and other members of the cartel.
Analysts said prices could be even lower if it was not for geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East.
Bitcoin was sitting around $46,500, having broken $47,000 on Monday for the first time since April 2022 on bets US regulators will approve exchange-traded funds that invest directly in the cryptocurrency. With AFP