The Department of Energy (DOE) expects to raise no red or yellow alerts next year despite the El Nino weather phenomenon leading to a significantly reduced capacity of the country’s hydropower plants, officials said Thursday.
DOE data showed that the projected available hydro capacity nationwide is at 725.5 megawatts (MW) next year, a nearly 80 percent decline from the total dependable capacity of 3,472 MW.
Luzon will bear the brunt of the “hydro deration” or reduced output to 585 MW from 2,416 MW while Mindanao’s hydro capacity will go down to 115.5 MW from 1,031 MW.
DOE director for the Electric Power Industry Management Bureau Irma Exconde said the agency has been monitoring the hydropower plants to prepare for the Nino weather phenomenon.
“We have assumed 70 percent of deration of hydropower plants, particularly the large ones in Luzon and Mindanao because in Visayas we don’t have very [big] hydropower plants,” Exconde said.
“But still, what we are saying even with these assumptions, we’re still looking at without potential red or yellow alert because of the power plants coming in 2024,” Exconde said.
Data showed several solar, coal, and natural gas plants and battery energy storage systems (BESS) are expected to come in next year.
DOE expects a total of 2,805 MW of additional capacity for Luzon next year, excluding 1,024 MW from BESS.
Broken down, 450 MW will come from coal owned by San Miguel Corp.’s (SMC) Mariveles Power Generation Corp., 1,320 MW from natural gas of Excellent Energy Resources Inc. also owned by SMC, and 1,035 MW from renewable energy sources.
“The challenge with El Niño is we need to run all sources of power that are available to us during this period. We will not depend on hydro,” Energy Secretary Raphael Lotilla said.
He said DOE is also making sure that the natural gas plants and the coal-fired plants will be available in 2024.
Lotilla warned that even if there are adequate power supply levels, “we are also anticipating that there might be interruptions where the plants, especially the coal-fired power plants will not be working at their optimal levels,”
“If the El Niño months will coincide with the hot months, average temperature goes up by 1 to 2 degrees above non El Niño years …Our concern is coal-fired power plants because they might encounter problems due to high temperatures,” he said.
Lotilla pushed for energy efficiency and conservation measures to bring down energy consumption thus reducing the use of the more expensive diesel plants.
“This will reduce the overall price of power for everyone if we don’t get to run the diesel-fired power plants,” the energy chief said.
