Some 36 provinces may experience a dry spell while at least two provinces may suffer from drought by December as the country braces for the impact of a looming El Niño phenomenon, the state weather bureau said.
PAGASA, however, said rice farmers would still have enough rainfall for the July to September planting season.
“There will be near to normal rain from July to September 2023,” the bureau said in a statement on Tuesday.
PAGASA climate monitoring chief Ana Solis said the possibility of El Niño is high.
She said rainfall is expected to decrease in September and to drop further from October to December this year.
“For December, 36 provinces will experience dry spell. Drought for two provinces,” Solis said.
Based on PAGASA’s forecast, the areas that may experience dry spell are as follows: Abra, Benguet, Ifugao, Kalinga, Apayao, Mountain Province, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Isabela, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Bataan, Bulacan, Nueva Ecija, Pampanga, Tarlac, Zambales, Metro Manila, Batangas, Laguna, Rizal, Quezon, Marinduque, Occidental Mindoro, Oriental Mindoro, Romblon, Palawan, Spratly Islands, Camarines Sur, and Catanduanes in Luzon; and Antique, Guimaras, Iloilo, and Leyte in Visayas.
Meanwhile, Southern Leyte and Camarines Norte may experience drought by the end of December.
Meanwhile, PAGASA senior weather specialist Rusy Abastillas said 11 to 14 tropical cyclones are still expected to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility from July until the end of the year.
Abastillas said three or four tropical cyclones may arrive in July.
The number of tropical cyclones will be reduce to two or three each in August, September, and October. By November and December, one or two more may enter PAR. Rio N. Araja
So far, three tropical cyclones have entered the PAR this year: Tropical Depression Amang, Typhoon Betty, and Typhoon Chedeng.
As this developed, the southern and eastern parts of Luzon will continue to experience rain showers due to the low pressure area (LPA) and the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) Tuesday, the state weather bureau.
“The LPA which was last tracked 260 kilometers east of Infanta, Quezon still has a slim chance of developing into a tropical cyclone.
However, it will bring rains to the eastern parts of Luzon,” Grace Castañeda of PAGASA said.
The ITCZ is expected to cause rain showers over parts of Southern Luzon, she said.
Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms caused by the LPA and ITCZ will prevail over Region 4-B (Mimaropa), Bicol Region, Cagayan Valley, Aurora and Quezon, she added.