The El Niño Alert is up.
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA)-Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section has said this climate crisis is likely to develop between June and August this year and may persist until 2024.
What does this mean? With scientists announcing the start of a potentially strong El Niño climate pattern in June 2023, what effect might this climate challenge have on our lives?
Weather experts have noted a vast body of warm water has been slowly sloshing across the tropical Pacific Ocean in the direction of South America.
The raised Alert is the second in the tri-level warning system, which is issued when El Niño is likely to develop within the next two months, and there is at least 70 percent chance it would develop.
El Niño (“little boy” or “Christ Child” in Spanish) – which last whipped the country in 2019 – occurs every two to seven years and it lasts eight to 12 months, according to PAGASA. Its strongest occurs every 10 to 15 years.
Another question may be “How long do El Niño and La Niña typically last and when do they develop?”
El Niño and La Niña episodes typically last 9-12 months. It is somewhat easier for a La Niña event to last longer (up to 2–3 years) than an El Niño, which rarely persists for more than a year at a time.
The worst case of El Niño in the Philippines happened in 1982-1983 and was recorded to be the worst in history, as trade winds not only collapsed but also reversed.
This basically agricultural economy of 114 million people last experienced El Niño from2018 to 2019.
Under the 2023 El Niño Mitigation and Adaptation Plan, the government said the Department of Agriculture will set in motion strategies that aims to lessen the impact of the El Niño phenomenon to the agriculture and fishery industries and restore productivity in affected areas.
It is comforting to note that with the foreseen onset of El Niñor, the DA will further strengthen measures that will address the effects of the expected drought, including the reactivation of an inter-agency El Niño Task Force to mitigate the potential effects of the phenomenon to the agriculture and fisheries sector.
We understand under the administration of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., the government will put up more water-related infrastructure such as hydroelectric power plants, flood control projects and irrigation systems.
An overall plan to change the way water supply is acquired will also be undertaken, according to the DA, which is headed by the chief executive.
Based on the 6-month rainfall forecast data of the DOST-PAGASA last March 22, at least 16 provinces in Central Visayas (Region VII), Eastern Visayas (Region VIII), Zamboanga Peninsula (Region IX), the Caraga Administrative Region (Region XIII) and Calabarzon (Region IV-A, particularly the province of Quezon, will be affected by the prolonged dry season.
Part of the government’s master plan to address El Niño is to save the vulnerable areas through appropriate water management, while irrecoverable areas will be rehabilitated.