The weather bureau formally issued an El Niño alert on Tuesday, saying the probability of it emerging between June and July this year rose to 80 percent and could persist until the first quarter of 2024.
On April 18, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration said the chances for an El Niño between June and August have increased from 55 percent to 80 percent.
The probability of El Niño between November and January 2024 also rose to about 87 percent, added PAGASA Deputy Administrator Esperanza Cayanan.
El Niño increases the likelihood of below-normal rainfall conditions, which could have negative impacts, such as dry spells and droughts, in some areas of the country.
PAGASA, however, said above-normal rainfall conditions during the southwest monsoon season or “habagat” may also be expected over the western part of the country.
“With this development, the PAGASA El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Alert and Warning System is now raised to El Niño Alert. El Niño (warm phase of ENSO) is characterized by unusually warmer than average sea surface temperatures at the central and eastern equatorial Pacific,” the bureau said.
“When conditions are favorable for the development of El Niño within the next two months at a probability of 70 percent or more, an El Niño alert is issued,” PAGASA said.
Drought or dry spells may be felt towards the last quarter of this year, and it is possible to experience heavy rainfall before seeing the effects of El Niño because of the “habagat” season from June to September, Cayanan added.
PAGASA said it would continue to closely monitor the development of the phenomenon.
“All concerned government agencies and the general public are encouraged to keep on monitoring and take precautionary measures against the impending impacts of El Niño,” it said.
The weather bureau’s administrator, Dr. Vicente Malano, said they will continue to closely monitor the development of the ENSO phenomenon.
All concerned government agencies and the public are encouraged to keep on monitoring and take precautionary measures against the impending impacts of El Niño.
Earlier, Ana Liza Solis, the bureau’s Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section chief, said Mindanao could be the hardest hit by the El Niño episode due to high water loss.
Based on historical data, Mindanao is losing over 35 percent of rainwater amid dry spells and drought due to El Niño.
