“Polls say he will win, hands down.”
The most important survey to come out of the heated political environment is that of Laylo Research done March 15-22, 2022, with 3,000 respondents and an error margin of +/-2 percent.
With its huge 3,000 respondents base and small error margin, the survey is reliable and presents an augury of the outcome of the May 9, 2022 elections—former Senator Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. (BBM for short) will win the presidency hands down.
About 61 of every 100 registered voters will elect Marcos as president. A poor second is Vice President Leni Robredo. She will get only 19 voters out of every 100. Assuming 60 million vote on election day, the 61 percent is equivalent to 36.6 million voters; 19 percent is equivalent to 11.4 million voters. Marcos Jr will win by a margin of 25.2 million votes—colossal by any standard.
The Pinks will assert it’s still more than 30 days before May 9. But the same Laylo survey asked respondents if they can still change their mind. If you don’t, you are considered a hard voter. If you will, or are not sure, you are a soft voter.
In the March 2022 Laylo survey, 55 percent of BBM’s voters were reckoned as hard voters—not much change from 56 percent in February, and 57 percent in January 2022. In contrast, in the same survey, Leni had only 15 percent hard voters—meaning most of her voters could change their mind on election day. This could make Leni’s voters susceptible to the bandwagon effect—the feeling of unease when one sides with an expected loser.
With 55 percent hard voters, Marcos Jr. will retain 20.1 million of his projected 36.6 million votes. With 15 percent hard voters, Leni will keep just 1.71 million of her 11.4 million likely supporters. That is how precarious Robredo’s standing is in the polls. She is skating on thin ice and she is likely to stumble on election day.
Politics and elections are a perception game. So mudslinging is a standard repertoire of political rivals. The Laylo March survey is significant in one aspect –It demolishes many of the positive myths about Leni Robredo. And it reinforces Marcos’s image as a nice guy.
Leni’s supporters claim Bongbong Marcos is corrupt. So Laylo asked 3,000 respondents. Who is honest and trustworthy? A staggering 55 percent of the respondents answered Marcos. A disappointing 22 percent said Leni.
To make sure Laylo got the right answer, the pollster asked the same question in another way. Who has a clean reputation? The answers: BBM 49 percent; Leni 26 percent.
And do voters trust more or the most? Bongbong Marcos is the most trusted among the ten presidential candidates. His trust rating is +53 percent. Leni’s trust rating -9 percent (negative). Manila Mayor Isko Moreno is better trusted than Leni. The Hizzoner has +16 percent trust rating, the second highest after Marcos.
In Bicol, Leni’s home region, Bongbong Marcos has a higher trust rating– +41 percent, 5.85 times Leni’s +7 percent trust rating. In North/Central Luzon, BBM has an enormous trust rating +75 percent –the highest among all regions. Leni’s trust rating in North/Central Luzon—a miserable +3 percent.
There are also allegations that Bongbong Marcos was a lazy politician. He did not produce a single law during his time in the Senate. So Laylo asked respondents: Who is hardworking? Marcos: 62 percent, Leni: 19 percent. Three of every five voters think Marcos is hardworking. Only one of every five voters thinks Leni is hardworking.
Leni supporters also claim Marcos does not want to join debates because he is not quite articulate. Laylo asked 3,000 respondents, Who can articulate well his/her views? The reply for Bongbong: 64 percent; for Leni: 17 percent. More than three of every five voters think BBM is articulate. Just less than one of every five thinks Leni is articulate.
Leni supporters insist boycotting debates will harm one’s candidacy. So Laylo asked 3,000 respondents about that—if they still definitely vote for the candidate who does not attend debates. A startling 73 percent of voters said they still will vote for Marcos. Just 11 percent say they will still vote for Leni if she misses the debates.
These perception questions about Bongbong and Leni where the former routinely beats the vice president hands down are important because of the degree of character assassination waged against the only son and namesake of strongman Ferdinand Marcos Sr. who ruled for 20 years, from 1966 to February 25, 1986. The pinks insist BBM is unfit to be president. People think otherwise.
Finally, why do voters want Marcos for president? The top 7 answers: 1) He has been a public servant for decades, 45 percent; 2) He has done a lot to improve Ilocos, 37 percent; 3) He will continue the good things Duterte did, 33 percent; 4) He is intelligent and knowledgeable, 29 percent; 5) He represents needed change, 15 percent; 6) He has good plans/platform, 8 percent; and 7) He can unify all Filipinos, 6 percent.
The top three reasons why voters don’t like Leni: She is a proxy for Aquino or the yellows; she is perceived as having weak character; and she is a woman.
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