The provinces of Cavite, Laguna, Quezon, and Rizal are now classified as “low risk” for COVID-19 transmission, the independent monitoring OCTA Research Group said on Wednesday.
Batangas is expected to follow suit in a few days, OCTA said.
OCTA fellow Guido David, in a tweet, said positivity rates in Calabarzon, as well as in the National Capital Region, have dropped below 10 percent.
“The positivity rates in NCR and Calabarzon continued to fall as all provinces had less than 10 percent positivity rate as of Feb. 15,” David said.
OCTA earlier classified NCR as a low risk for COVID-19 transmission and said this could slide down to “very low risk” by March.
Among Calabarzon provinces, Quezon “is very close to being the first province under very low risk classification,” David said.
Based on OCTA’s data, NCR had a positivity rate of 7 percent as of Feb. 15, while Batangas had 10 percent, Cavite had 9 percent, Laguna and Rizal had 8 percent, and Quezon had 4 percent.
The NCR had a reproduction rate—which refers to the number of people infected by one case- of 0.19, Batangas 0.25, Cavite 0.20, Laguna and Quezon 0.19, and Rizal 0.18.
A reproduction number below 1 indicates that the transmission of the virus is slowing down.
The NCR had the highest average daily attack rate with 3.57 while Quezon had the lowest at 0.79.
On Tuesday, OCTA said Metro Manila’s positivity rate for COVID-19 may fall below 5 percent in March, an indicator that according to the World Health Organization, the epidemic is “controlled or declining.”
OCTA fellow Dr. Guido David said the NCR’s positivity rate or percentage of coronavirus tests that yield positive results is down to 6.8 percent.
Other indicators of a controlled epidemic include a three-week decline of at least 50 percent since the latest peak of infections, and at least two weeks of “continuous” reduction in hospitalization and ICU admissions, according to the WHO.
At least 80 percent of cases should be linked to known clusters, which indicates that “transmission chains have been identified.”
The Philippines in January battled record-high coronavirus infections driven by the more contagious Omicron variant.
The seven-day average of new cases is now at 3,600, said David, a mathematics professor at the University of the Philippines.
OCTA earlier said the daily tally of new cases could go down to below 1,000 by March.
The Philippines logged 2,671 new COVID-19 cases on Wednesday, bringing the total case count to 3,644,597, the Department of Health (DOH) reported.
The DOH also reported 68,829 active cases, of which 1,130 are asymptomatic; 63,037 are mild; 2,920 are moderate; 1,433 are severe; and 309 are critical.
This is the lowest number of active cases since Jan. 6.
The positivity rate was at 9.6 percent, based on COVID-19 tests on 25,629 people conducted on Feb. 14.
There were 77 new fatalities reported, bringing the COVID-19 death toll to 55,223.
The DOH also reported 6,130 new recoveries, bringing the total number of recoveries to 3,520,545.
Nationwide, 33 percent of ICU beds, 28 percent of isolation beds, 24 percent of ward beds, and 17 percent of ventilators, are in use.
In Metro Manila, 32 percent of ICU beds, 26 percent of isolation beds, 25 percent of ward beds, and 19 percent of ventilators, are in use.
Despite the decline in cases, a health expert urged the public to remain vigilant and warned against complacency as the government is preparing for the “new normal.”
Dr. Lulu Bravo, director of Philippine Foundation for Vaccination, said the public should follow the health protocols imposed by the government, which came from the recommendations of the health experts backed with scientific data.
Bravo said the public should always wear face masks and maintain physical distance despite the decrease of COVID-19 infections in the country.
Bravo also encouraged the public to get inoculated against COVID-19, saying that vaccines will help the country recover from the pandemic.
Earlier, Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire said Alert Level 1 would be the country’s “new normal.” It is declared when case transmission is low and decreasing, and total bed utilization and intensive care unit utilization rates are low.
Vergeire said under the new normal, restrictions will be very specific or will only be implemented in areas with high risk of infection.
The capacity limit in establishments, whether indoor or outdoor and in transportation will be removed.
Also on Wednesday, Cebu Pacific said it has expanded its international flights after the government eased arrival quarantine restrictions and reopened its borders for tourists this month.
The airline resumed its thrice weekly flights to Bangkok, and weekly flights to Fukuoka and Jakarta.
“This development will benefit the tourism industry across the Philippines as we welcome vaccinated travelers from around the world to explore our beautiful shores,” Xander Lao, chief commercial officer at Cebu Pacific said.
Cebu Pacific also plans to resume its flights to other international routes from Manila next month, specifically Ho Chi Minh (Saigon) on March 1; and Taipei on March 2.
The United Arab Emirates has also lifted capacity restrictions on the Dubai-Manila route, enabling Cebu Pacific to resume its daily flight frequency beginning March 1.
