“Mr. Duterte is the most popular president in Philippine history, surveys tell us.“
If you believe surveys, Rodrigo Duterte is the most popular president in Philippine history.
His approval ratings are exasperatingly high for qualities a sane person wouldn’t associate with Digong Duterte, the President who is into his last four months in office: diligent in his duty 69 percent in September 2021; respected by countries of good standing 68 percent; he solved many problems 64 percent; decisive in decision-making 63 percent.
Tatay Digong is authentic; he lives simply like an ordinary Filipino. 64 percent agree.
An overwhelming majority, however, consider Duterte’s drugs war too bloody. About 59 percent of Filipino adults said so in September 2021, 72 percent in June 2021, and 66 percent in May 2021. In September 2021, 40 percent of adults think he has no respect for the law, down from 47 percent in June 2021, and 42 percent in May 2021.
He favors the rich more than the poor? Well, 41 percent agreed in September 2021, 52 percent in June 2021, and 50 in May 2021. This is an amazing finding. The rich, particularly businessmen, hate Duterte.
These are some of the findings in the survey of the Social Weather Stations last year. SWS conducted its Fourth Quarter 2021 survey Dec. 12-16, 2021.
The Philippines’ leading pollster found 75 percent of adult Filipinos satisfied with Duterte’s performance as president, with 9 percent undecided, and 15 percent dissatisfied.
Compared with September 2021, gross satisfaction with President Duterte rose by 8 points from 67 percent, while gross undecided fell by 2 points from 11 percent, and gross dissatisfaction stayed at 15 percent.
This gives Duterte a net satisfaction rating of +60 ( percent satisfiedminus percent dissatisfied), classified by SWS as very good.
SWS noted that +60 is 8 points above the very good+52 in September 2021 and similar to the very good+62 in June 2021. The resulting +64 average for all of 2021 is 4 points below the +68 average for 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic struck.
SWS said the 8-point rise in Duterte’s overall net satisfaction rating from September 2021 to December 2021 was due to increases in Metro Manila and Balance Luzon, combined with steady net ratings of excellent in Mindanao and good in the Visayas.
Duterte’s net satisfaction rating rose from good to very good in Metro Manila, up by 13 points from +48 to +61.
Satisfaction with the long-time Davao mayor also rose from good to very good in Balance Luzon, up by 12 points from +44 to +56. It stayed excellent in Mindanao, up by 4 points from +76 to +80. It stayed good in the Visayas, hardly moving from +44 to +45.
Duterte’s +60 satisfaction rating compares favorably with President Corazon Aquino’s +10 in November 1991, seven months before the end of her term of six years and four months; the +40 of Fidel V. Ramos in December 1997; +9 in Joseph Estrada’s last month in December 2000; -38% of Gloria Arroyo in December 2009; and +32 of Benigno Simeon Cojuangco Aquino III in December 2015.
Duterte’s +60 satisfaction end-December 2021 rating is slightly lower than his +63 in December 2016, the end of his first six months, and is even above his +58 in December 2017, the same as his +60 in December 2018, but lower than his +72 in December 2019, and +79 in November 2020.
At the height of the pandemic, when so many people were disgruntled and sick, Duterte scored his highest year-end net satisfaction rating – a whopping +79 in November 2020.
This makes Duterte the most popular president since 1986 when SWS began its surveys.
On a gross basis (without subtracting the percent of adults dissatisfied), Duterte’s satisfaction is even more amazing—a high 75 percent in December 2021, up from the 67 percent in September 2021 but the same as the 75 percent in June 2021.
In sharp contrast, the net satisfaction ratings of Vice President Leni Robredo have collapsed, tragically, from +36 percent in December 2019, to +23 in December 2020, to +1 percent in December 2021.
In gross satisfaction, Leni’s ratings have declined dramatically, by 30.5 percent, from 59 percent in December 2019 to 41 percent in December 2021.
At the same time, the vice president’s dissatisfaction ratings have swelled, nearly doubling from 23 percent in December 2019, to 40 percent in December 2021.
Among the top five national officials—Duterte, Senate President Vicente Sotto, House Speaker Lord Allan Velasco, and Chief Justice Alexander Gesmundo, only Leni Robredo registered the sharpest drop, by a steep 97.2 percent, from +36 in December 2019 to +1 in December 2021.
During the same two-year period, Senate President Sotto’s net satisfaction rating fell by 16 percent, from +62 to +52; while House Speaker Velasco’s dropped 61%, from +13 to +5.
Gesmundo’s net satisfaction rating was cut by 30 percent, from +10 in May 2021, after he became chief justice, to +7 in December 2021.
Leni Robredo ranks among the most unpopular vice presidents post-1986, her net satisfaction rating of +1 beaten only by Vice President Salvador Laurel’s -10 percent in April 1992, and Gloria Arroyo’s -4 in December 2000, a month before she dislodged Joseph Estrada as president in People Power II, and Tito Guingona’s +2 in June 2004.
The most popular vice presidents are Joseph Estrada who enjoyed a dizzying +41 percent net satisfaction rating in March 1998, Jejomar Binay +24 in December 2015, and Noli de Castro +23 in June 2010.
In May 1998, Estrada won the presidency by a huge plurality. In May 2004, Gloria Arroyo won the presidency by a hairline margin.
Binay lost badly in the 2016 presidential elections, landing fourth out of five major candidates.
At this stage, Robredo is faring badly against former Senator Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. in pre-election presidential surveys.
Robredo is averaging 16 percent in five major surveys against Marcos Jr’s 54.8 percent.
Assuming a voter turnout of 60 million, a 54.8 percent share of the vote is equivalent to 32.88 million votes; a 16 percent chunk is 9.6 million, Marcos would get 23.28 million votes more votes than Leni’s 9.6 million. That will be unprecedented.
Now, can a vice president who has admirers and haters in equal number defeat a hugely popular Marcos Jr?
