"Whatever will be, will be."
During a brief visit to the country principally to greet the Taiwanese community in the Philippines on the occasion of the 108th Double Ten anniversary, I was swamped with conversations about who will run for president come 2022.
We are such a politics-crazy people, indeed.
Will Ping Lacson run? What do you think of Isko Moreno? With Cynthia Villar’s strong showing in the last senatorial elections, what are her chances of bagging the presidency come 2022? Does Vice-President Leni Robredo have a chance as the Liberal Party’s candidate for president?
Will Speaker Alan, basking in the first-ever high performance rating for a leader of the House of trapos, be the first speaker after Manuel Roxas Sr. to become president? Will Grace Poe try again, and also, when will Coco Martin “die” in Ang Probinsyano? Would Bongbong make another stab for higher office, however the SC decides on his protest? Will Tito Sen throw his hat into the ring as well? And the omni-present Dick Gordon of the hyper-active Blue Ribbon?
And then the ultimate equation-changing question: Will Sara Duterte run for president in 2022? You think the President will endorse her as his successor?
These conversations happened at a time when presidential spokesman Sal Panelo came up with his comments about a non-crisis in transportation that ended up with his commuting from Marikina to Malacanang, only to confirm the calvary that ordinary folks experience each day.
Anyway, I am not a transport expert for anybody to ask me about solutions to Metro Manila’s traffic problem which seems to get worse by the day, although having lived in the metropolis from the halcyon days when there were fewer people being moved by fewer vehicles to the present nerve-wracking situation of gridlock wherever you go, I do have some Gordian Knot “solutions” to the mess.
One of those in a recent conversation recalled having read an article by former ambassador to Greece Rigoberto Tiglao right after President Duterte made it in 2016, where I was described as someone who “seems to have a knack for correctly betting on who the next president would be before they get into power.”
“Hindi ako Nostradamus,” I said. It’s just that at the right time, after a close observation of political personalities, and after a feel of the public pulse, honed through years of being a political technician, I am able to make the right choices.
The political marriage between Cory and Doy, which ended up in a tragic split after power was gained, had me in front-seat audience. Then came the ascent of Vice President Joseph Estrada to the presidency after FVR, and the absurd denouement that followed when Estrada fell from power less than halfway through his elected term.
There was the beleaguered campaign of Ninoy and Cory’s son, Noynoy, in early 2010, with Sen. Serge Osmena whose sage reading of opinion polls left me dumbfounded. A seeming victory of Manny Villar, whose infomercials were gems in political communication, was successfully thwarted.
And then, with everybody and his mother in the Manila political circuit calling us “crazy” for rooting for a mayor from the deep South a year and a half before the 2016 elections, against establishment politicians such as an incumbent vice-president who miraculously won over Noynoy’s running-mate in 2010, or the same presidential running-mate with a pedigree from way back the first presidency of the Third Republic, and the adopted daughter of the king of Tagalog movies, we surprised the country with a stunning victory in the end.
Of course there were disappointments as well. I bet on then-Chief Justice Marcelo B. Fernan to succeed Cory, and eventually had to support a Mitra-Fernan tandem which lost to a split FVR-Erap win, where I learned a lesson that to this day I hold dear—machinery matters terribly less behind imagery when it comes to presidential elections.
Then again, despite overwhelming odds, I supported Ping Lacson in 2004 against an incumbent president who was exceedingly good at wielding power, and a clueless but exceedingly popular candidate from, again, the movie kingdom.
Hits and misses, but as usual in this country, the most recent hits are what many remember.
So back to the intriguing question: Who’s who, come 2022?
It’s too early to tell. Wait until the first quarter of 2021, but keep your ears on the ground for what the would-be presidentiables would do next year. Pay attention as well to negative flashbacks on earlier careers, whether real or fabricated.
Plus, watch President Duterte.
I am willing to bet that the President’s support will still be a very big asset to whoever wants to succeed him. Unlike other presidents before him, Duterte’s trust ratings will still be quite high, despite occasional dips and corrections, come 2022.
Will he field his Inday Sara to succeed him?
That’s the big question. Corollary to which, would Inday Sara want to inherit the presidency from her father?
How would the people of Luzon, Metro Manila and the other half of the Visayas take to a presidential dynasty so soon after the incumbent? And how would the President himself read this as risk instead of challenge?
And then again, who knows who else would rise in the political firmament next year or even by 2021? Who could be a dark horse, like Duterte was in the previous presidential contest?
Senator Bong Go, perhaps? Mayor Benjie Magalong?
Que sera, sera. Whatever will be, will be.
Better yet, whoever is destined to be, will be.
Still and all, those who cast moist eyes on Malacanang need to work on it, starting next year.
“Show me the numbers,” Senator Ping once said, before he jumped into the fray.
Well, the numbers are what you make them to be. It’s never going to be manna from heaven. That thing happened only once in recent history with the death of Cory.
But then again, who knows how Providence will manifest destiny?