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Thursday, May 9, 2024

Dutertenomics

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"People want two things—comfort and security."

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Shortly after Rodrigo Roa Duterte took power on June 30, 2016, his National Economic and Development Authority revealed a study on the problems and aspirations of Filipinos in the next 25 years or by 2040.

Two of Filipinos’ most pressing problems—one, mobility, literal mobility; people cannot get to work fast and at a reasonable fare; two, corruption and red tape, from the top to the bottom of the government.

People want two things—comfort and security.

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NEDA defines comfort (maginhawa) for Filipinos this way:

 “No one is poor, no one is ever hungry. Filipino families live in comfortable homes with the desired amenities and secure tenure. Families and friends are within reach because transport is convenient and affordable, and they can take a vacation together within the country and abroad. Children receive quality education so that they realize their full potentials and become productive members of society. Decent jobs that bring sustainable income are available, including opportunities for entrepreneurship.”

 On the other hand, security (panatag na buhay) means security over their life time. “They expect to live long and enjoy a comfortable life upon retirement. There are resources to cover unexpected expenses, and there are savings. They feel safe in all places in the country. Filipinos trust their government because it is free of corruption and provides service to all its citizens equally,” explains NEDA.

 Why do Filipinos want comfort and security?  There is a third aspiration, what NEDA calls “matatag na buhay,” having strong roots.  The economic planning body explains:

 “Filipino families live together; there is work-life balance so that there is time to spend with family even for members who work. On weekends, families and friends enjoy time together in parks and recreational centers. It is a high-trust society with a strong sense of community. There are volunteer opportunities, and Filipinos spend time to serve the community, help others who are in need, and contribute to various causes.”

 The NEDA study gave rise to Duterte’s fighting faith.  He must fight crime—and corruption.  This is the security aspect of Filipinos’ aspirations. 

 At the same time, Duterte must provide inclusive growth which means reducing poverty incidence from 21.6 percent of the population in 2015 to 14 percent by the end of the President’s term in 2022.  This is the “comfortable” aspect of the Filipino dream.

Fighting criminality means getting rid of illegal drugs.  Accordingly, more than 5,000 have been killed in the first three years of the administration’s vigorous anti-illegal drugs campaign. 

Duterte has embarked on what he calls “Build, Build, Build”—the largest and broadest infrastructure spending program ever undertaken by any Philippine government in the last 100 years.

Build, Build, Build will cost up to P9 trillion when Duterte ends his presidency in June 2022.  The gargantuan sum will go to 75 priority infrastructure projects littered from north to south Philippines.

Finance Secretary Carlos Dominguez calls the strategy Dutertenomics, an an “audacious” “catch-up strategy” with Manila’s its more vibrant neighbors by 2022 to achieve high-income status Filipinos in 25 years.

Dutertenomics is the present-day Philippine equivalent of Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal (1933-1936), a series of programs, public works projects, financial reforms, and regulations enacted in response to the need for relief, reform, and recovery from the Great Depression.

Under the presidency of BS Aquino, Filipinos had a massive depression, with scandals like having the worst airport in the world, Mamasapano, dengvaxia, MRT3 breakdown, an LRT to nowhere, to name some.

Aquino’s incompetence and corruption so enraged the populace that they elected as president a relatively unknown and untested candidate for a national office, Rodrigo Duterte.

Duterte garnered 16.6-million votes, 6.6-million more votes than the 9.978 million of the Liberal Party’s Mar Roxas, incidentally, the cabinet minister in charge of MRT3.

In the elections of May 2019, Duterte’s coalition won 10 of 12 senatorial seats; none of the Liberal Party’s eight senatorial candidates won, including  Mar Roxas, who landed 17th.

 Under the Philippine Development Plan, economic growth is 7-8 percent per year until 2022. So far, Duterte has achieved 6.5 percent in three years, below target, but still the highest average among all presidents since 1986.

Poverty is targeted to decline from 21.6 percent in 2015 to 14 percent by 2022; rural poverty from 30 percent to 20 percent.

The unemployment is to go down to 3-5 percent by 2022 from 5.5 percent in 2016.

 Other targets are: higher trust in government and society, more resilient individuals and communities, and a greater drive for innovation.

In less than three years of his presidency, Duterte ushered in the most profound and far-reaching pieces of economic and social legislation in history. 

The measures are designed to accelerate the country’s growth rate, make Filipinos middle to high income ahead of targets,  and change the socio-economic structure meaningfully by reaching out to those who have less in life in terms of income, education, health care, and social standing.

There are 10 centerpiece measures to bring about robust economic takeoff and inclusion: 1) TRAIN or theTax Reform for Acceleration and Inclusion Act; 2) Build, Build, Build; 3) Free College Education; 4) Universal Health Care; 5) Rice Tarrification; 6) Expanded Value Added Tax; 7) the annual appropriations or budget; 8) Expanded Conditional Cash Transfer; 9) Ease of Doing Business and Efficient Government Service Delivery Act (Republic Act 11032) which amended the Anti-Red Tape Act of 2007; and 10) control of inflation.

Among the additional tax and economic reform measures pending in Congress are: 1) the TRABAHO (Tax Reform for Attracting Better and High-Quality Opportunities (TRABAHO) Bill, which is Part II of TRAIN; 2) Public Service Act; 3) Retail Trade Liberalization; and the Foreign Investment Act.

The centerpiece measures would not have been possible without the cooperation and hard work of Duterte’s allies in Congress.

 Foremost among the allies is Rep. Joey Sarte Salceda, 58, of the second district of Albay.   He is the country’s best analyst having built a fortune with his dizzying depth of analysis and anticipation of economic trends. He is the House’s chief economist and planner.

He authored TRAIN (RA 10963), today, the landmark law that transferred enormous wealth to 99 percent of Filipino workers, at the rate of P111 billion a year.

Joey Salceda should be Duterte’s No. 1 choice as chairman of the House Committee on Appropriations which prepares the annual budget. Taxpayers’ money will be in good hands and properly spent.

biznewsasia@gmail.com

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