"Some candidates fool themselves with self-serving surveys, using these as a propaganda tool or a means to raise funds instead of as basis for correct strategy."
"Some candidates fool themselves with self-serving surveys, using these as a propaganda tool or a means to raise funds instead of as basis for correct strategy."Next Monday, some 40 to 43 million Filipinos will troop to the polling precincts to cast their vote for 12 senators, one congressman, a party-list group, a governor or city mayor, a municipal mayor, and a host of other local officials to include board members, vice-mayors and councilors.
As I always maintain, we elect far too many officials, and yet suffer for the most part and for the longest time from poor governance, notwithstanding their number.
Strategies and tactics have by now been set by the candidates and their handlers for the final push. Assuming that periodic measurements of how the candidate stands in the electoral derby are properly done, and are appreciated for what they are, as tools for crafting strategy and operations, the final two weeks are critical to winning or losing.
I underline “properly done periodic measurements” because some candidates fool themselves with self-serving surveys, using these as a propaganda tool or a means to raise funds instead of as basis for correct strategy.
This being mid-term elections, a 70 percent voter turn-out should be more or less the norm. It could in fact be lower because there are so many provinces, cities and municipalities where the elections are a no-contest. Bereft of credible opponents, local candidates are not expected to mobilize their supporters and bring them to the polling place next Monday.
There are some tightly-contested races though, such as in Manila and Malabon in the National Capital Region, Cebu City, Iloilo City and province among others, and several congressional districts all over the country where the final push is all-important.
This time also, the last four slots in the senatorial derby are hotly contested by as many as eight candidates. And who comes out Numero Uno is contested by three, namely, Grace Poe, Cynthia Villar and Bong Go.
Secure likewise, based on the latest publicly-divulged and privately-commissioned surveys I have seen are Pia Cayetano, Nancy Binay, Lito Lapid, Sonny Angara and Bato de la Rosa. While this is not cast in stone, as nothing in politics is, the numbers show that unless some kind of a tectonic shift in the public mood happens between now and next Monday, they shall be in the Senate of the 18th Congress.
Who gets to finally make it in the last four slots is too difficult to predict, with the numbers still too close as of mid-April, a month before the elections.
Have they shifted their communications strategy, tweaked their advertising? For instance, it seems that Bam Aquino has gained several points ahead of Mar Roxas in the same Otso Diretso non-ticket. Is it because Bam has been more visible, more active in the hustings? Is it because he has a more attractive message? Did the Lacson endorsement which he used in his TV ads help?
And while Chel Diokno and Erin Tanada, with surnames which are hallowed in political history, have gained several points in the last two or three months, the generational gap and the average Filipino’s short memories were not surmounted enough. They still languish in single-digit territory.
So who are battling it out for the last remaining four slots?
Francis Tolentino and Koko Pimentel, JV Ejercito and Jinggoy Estrada, Imee Marcos and Bong Revilla, Mar Roxas and Serge Osmena, not necessarily in that order of enumeration. Neither, I hasten to explain, am I endorsing anybody in this article.
Both surveys show that the vote conversion of these eight are in the mid-20s to the upper 30s, while the first eight are already doing more than 40 percentage points. To get inside the magic circle will require at least a third of the electorate’s vote, which is 33 to 35 percent.
A good final push strategy combined with enough resources and ground capability could push someone in the 30s or even high 20s to gain five to six points more within a month’s time. Conversely, bad strategy and poor execution can shave off the same number from someone in the upper 30’s downwards.
For the eight names mentioned in the surveys, it will be very, very close. As for those whose numbers are even below 20, such as Juan Ponce Enrile, Dong Mangudadatu, Freddie Aguilar, Jiggy Manicad and Doc Willie Ong (whose showing is remarkable given his running independent of any party or grouping and with very little resources), it will be very difficult to close the gap, given the time left. But then again, who knows? Miracles do happen.
The privately-commissioned survey shows very high endorsement value for the president and Mayor Inday Sara, at 63 percent and 46 percent respectively (will surely vote for) and only 20 percent and 28 percent downside (will not vote for). The numbers are stacked in favor of those they endorsed. And the President’s net satisfaction rating is very high. There is however no one-on-one correlation between the high endorsement value and the vote conversion of the candidates.
Then there are the “solid” voting blocs to consider, whether regional or religious. Who the religious groups with a track-record for member compliance will endorse this week will matter in very close contests such as this. Will the religious bloc(s) be segurista and endorse purely on the basis of winnability? Or will they take a more discerning, more principled stand in deciding who among the eight they will include in the last four slots?
As for the regional vote, that is a matter of tactical maneuver, and the sorry possibility of a party-mate junking the rest of the ticket could tilt the balance. But then again, how “solid” is solid in this digital age? How “tribal” are our young people still? And how entrenched is the machinery needed for such tactical maneuver?
In any case, the final election results, by province and region, will clearly show who did what.
* * *
Last week I wrote about how the overseas voting was being conducted in Taiwan and unwittingly credited Comelec for the initiative of coming up with an animated video to instruct voters on how to cast their vote at the polling precinct.
The video it turns out was part of the efforts of MECO staff to guide our kababayans on voting procedures. A young, recently hired information assistant should get the credit for the production of the video under the tutelage of my executive assistant who doubles up as information officer.
As of this writing, some 12 to 13 percent of the registered voters in Taiwan have actually voted. We expect more this week-end and especially towards the next. In previous mid-term elections, voter turn-out in Taiwan was less than 25 percent.
