A decades-long push to halt the violence that has claimed some 150,000 lives in Mindanao culminated Monday with a vote on giving the nation’s Muslim minority greater control over the region.
The plebiscite is the final step in a peace deal with the Catholic-majority country’s largest Muslim rebel group, the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, which has been a key force in a separatist insurgency that has raged since the 1970s.
Core areas of the proposed Bangsamoro region, located on the island of Mindanao, are expected to vote overwhelmingly to join it.
“I’m tired of the violence because my father is one of the victims,” said 22-year-old Jembrah Abas, adding he was slain by unidentified attackers after advocating for peace.
The election “is on the 20th anniversary of his death. I’m so sick of the violence,” she said.
Roughly 2.8-million voters will be watched over by a contingent of 20,000 police and soldiers, amid fears rival insurgent groups could use violence to try to disrupt the plebiscite.
The peace process began in the 1990s and does not include hardline Islamist factions, including those aligned with the Islamic State group, which are also active in Mindanao.
“Their motive is to sow terror,” Philippine National Police chief Oscar Albayalde said, referring to the rival groups. “They don’t really have any other cause.”
The government and MILF hope that a new, stable Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao will attract investment to a region where brutal poverty and perennial bloodshed have fueled recruitment by radical groups.
President Rodrigo Duterte, who also hails from Mindanao, has long backed the creation of an autonomous region for the island’s Muslims.
Under the terms of the law which lays out the region’s powers, the Bangsamoro region will get $950 million in development funds over the next 10 years, as well as a chunk of the tax revenue generated within its borders.
The national government will keep control over the police, though the leadership of the autonomous area will be closely involved in security matters.
Final results are expected to be released within four days of the voting, with an approval triggering the demobilization of a third of MILF’s fighters, which it says number 30,000.
Muslim rebels have long been battling for independence or autonomy on Mindanao, which they regard as their ancestral homeland dating back to when Arab traders arrived there in the 13th century.
In fact, the new entity would enlarge and replace a similar autonomous zone, which struggled to complete development projects and was plagued by violence.
The proposed region includes the city of Marawi, which was seized by jihadists flying the black flag of IS in 2017 and who were only dislodged by a five-month battle that flattened swathes of the town.
Experts say the devolution of powers to the region is one of the best opportunities in recent memory to bring down the persistently high levels of lawlessness in Mindanao.
However, corruption and mismanagement are perennial problems across the nation of 105 million, and doubts remain over whether resources promised for development would find their way to Bangsamoro.
Experts also said not all groups would support the change.
“In the short term, there are a number of groups and politicians that are going to lose out,” Gregory Wyatt, director for business intelligence at PSA Philippines Consultancy, said.
“So there are significant short-term risks.”
The Palace on Monday said the “yes” vote would win in the plebiscite on the Bangsamoro Organic Law because the majority of people believe in it, and dismissed communist allegations that it would be ratified by vote-buying and coercion by the government.
In a statement, the founder of the Communist Party of the Philippines, Jose Ma. Sison said the BOL would be ratified because the administration has taken control of the Commission on Elections and put the PNP in charge in so-called hot spots.
Sison said vote-buying was at P200 per vote and P1,000 for each vote buying agent, and payments in the millions to Comelec officials, certain governors, congressmen and mayors.
Panelo dismissed the communist leader’s statements as “nonsense.”
“’Yes’ will win because that will be the voice of the majority, not because of President Rodrigo Duterte’s coercive influence, or vote buying,” he said.
In his statement, Sison, who lives in the Netherlands, said he is “in touch with the representatives of various Bangsamoro forces and other people in mixed communities.”
“I know exactly how much the vote-buying agents of Duterte are paying to the ordinary poor voters and how much in millions the Comelec officials and certain governors, congressmen and mayors are getting to rig the plebiscite,” Sison said.
Despite tension and security threats in some areas, the Comelec reported a high turnout at the start of the plebiscite.
Comelec spokesman James Jimenez said that while there were reports of delays in some precincts in Cotabato City, the plebiscite proceeded peacefully. He added that the presence of soldiers and police—especially in Basilan, Sulu, Tawi-Tawi and Lanao del Sur—helped ensure a peaceful election.
More than 1 million registered voters cast their ballots in Basilan, Lanao del Sur, Maguindanao, Sulu and Tawi-Tawi—and in the cities of Cotabato and Isabela.
Another 600,000 registered voters will vote on Feb. 6 in Lanao del Norte, Jimenez said.
“The vote is not computerized and they just answer the ballots by yes or no,” the poll body said.
Jimenez said the counting will be manual and full results will most likely be released four days after the close of voting.
In Cotabato City, 72 teachers backed out from serving in 240 precincts, citing threatening text messages they received, ARMM Comelec Director Rey Sumalipao said.
Jimenez said the situation was promptly addressed by appointing policemen to take the teachers’ place.
A grenade found outside the Rojas Elementary School scared voters away, but bomb disposal personnel later exploded it safely.
The BOL seeks to replace the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao with the BARMM, which provides for more fiscal autonomy and resources through revenue-sharing with the national government, a block grant, and other development funds.
In Sulu, where the BOL has been strongly opposed by former governor Sakur Tan, ballot boxes were all delivered at 5 a.m., voting started on time and went on smoothly and orderly in all the province’s 18 municipalities, according to reports reaching the Comelec regional office in ARMM.
Voting also went smoothly in Maguindanao, Gov. Esmael Mangudadatu said, as he dispelled rumors on social media that he had defected to anti-BOL camp.A second plebiscite will be held on Feb. 6 in the municipalities of Midsayap, Aleosan, Pikit, and Kabacan in North Cotabato, and in the entire province of Lanao del Norte, except Iligan City. The balloting for yes or no will determine if the residents of the areas approve of a territorial expansion of the region to cover 36 more barangays in those North Cotabato municipalities, and six municipalities in Lanao del Norte.
All ballots cast from the five ARMM provinces will be canvassed at the SKCC Hall, and the Maguindanao ballots will be tallied at the Regional Legislative Assembly of the ARMM—all starting 6 p.m.
Since Cotabato and Isabela are not part of the ARMM, the results counted from votes cast in these cities will be sent directly to the Comelec Manila where tallies will be canvassed.
Earlier, an official of the Bangsamoro Transition Commission said misinformation was being spread about the BOL.
In a media forum in Marawi City, Commissioner Ammal Solaiman said people were being told that a “yes” vote would put the entire Lanao del Norte in the Bangsamoro area.
“That it is not the concept. Only the six municipalities and those that filed their petition will be included in the Bangsamoro if ‘yes’ votes will win,” Solaiman said.
Another misinformation being circulated is that Christian residents in Lanao del Norte would be stripped of their rights once the BOL is ratified.
“There are provisions in the BOL that would protect the rights of Christian residents,” she said. With Francisco Tuyay and PNA
