As has been frequently emphasized, the Chinese character for crisis has two meanings—danger and opportunity. Let’s be ready for both in 2018: face the dangers we will meet and wrestle the opportunities for good from them to come out.
In the Dec. 28, 2017 issue of the Washington Post, American political pundit Joe Scarborough writes ominously: “A storm is gathering, and there is every reason to believe that 2018 will be the most consequential political year of our lives.” Scarborough makes a reference to Winston Churchill’s obra maestra “The Gathering Storm,” quoting a Republican strategist Steve Schmidt’s insistence to him that “Churchill’s ominous warnings to future generations will be more relevant to 2018 than at any time since it was written in the years after World War II.”
Globally, it is no longer out of the question that war could break out anytime in the Korean peninsula with hundreds of thousands, even millions, of potential casualty. In the meantime, the Middle East smolders with tensions rising with such reckless decisions as the United States did in recognizing Jerusalem as the capital of Israel.
While ISIS seems to have been rolled back in Syria and Iraq, terrorism has not been defeated and attacks from religious extremists, especially “lone wolf” attacks, are still expected.
Closer to home, in the Philippines there are many dangers to watch out for.
If you were in a poor urban neighborhood, the chances of getting killed in the war against drugs is high. Keep watch on your children especially Kian, Carl, and Kulot are not going to be the last victims of a trigger-happy police, emboldened by assurances of the highest official in the land that he will stand by them as long as they are just doing their duty. Such assurance is fine except when the presumption of regularity is mistakenly misapplied. The rule is that every killing by law enforcers is presumed irregular and thus has to be investigated. Only after investigation are the policemen cleared.
Unfortunately, we have distorted the rule and now automatically exonerate the police until proof is shown that the force used was not justified.
A trigger-happy police leads to incidents like the shooting of innocent people last week day in Mandaluyong. For sure, there will be more of that in the year to come unless strong disciplinary measures are taken and well established protocols in the use of force are restored.
I would have thought that we have already learned to manage and respond to natural disasters. But the experience of Vinta and the way government responded to it, with 200 or so casualties, has been disastrous (pun intended). Have we abandoned zero casualty as our goal? Are we back to fatalism as President Duterte seemed to imply in one of his post-Vinta statements? Are we again going to blame victims for not heeding warnings when we already have a lot of experience of compulsory, preemptive evacuation?
It is not enough to just give notice and information to people. One must be aggressive in making the dangers known and taking measures to save lives. That is why the award-winning City Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (CDRRMC) of Cagayan de Oro was once again successful in achieving zero casualty when Vinta hit our hometown. Since I live by the Cagayan river, and was there on the eve of the storm, I saw CDRRMC’s preparations and congratulate them for their efforts.
Clearly Cagayan de Oro has learned from the lessons of Sendong which killed thousands of residents in 2011. They have heeded the advice posted in Facebook by former Project Noah director Mahar Lagmay and now UP Resilience Institute for Disaster Risk Reduction and Management (UPIRDRRM) head: “Let us not ignore the knowledge learned through the years. They are valuable and can save lives!”
Going now to politics, I suspect 2018 could be a very dangerous year for social and political activists, human rights advocates, journalists committed to truth, and opposition politicians.
Both forces of the government and non-state supporters of the Duterte administration are determined to quell criticism and legitimate debate, confident that the President is taking the country in the right direction. They believe that all those standing in the way are just obstructionists that need to be swept away. They do not understand that the more they attack those who resist, the stronger the resistance becomes.
I will not be surprised if the President declares a revolutionary government or if the House of Representatives, with or without the cooperation of the Senate and deviating from the recognized procedure of constitutional change, rams through a constitutional revision that would at the outset not be legitimate.
Under both scenarios, the Supreme Court will be the forum of last resort to prevent dictatorship or other unconstitutional regime change. While many are skeptical, I believe that there are enough members of the Court who will have the courage to do the right thing.
I hope that the Court, in the pending cases questioning the government policy in the war against drugs, will decisively order the end of the massacre of the poor. I hope that the administration will then modify current policy that would lead to less bloodshed, zero casualty in fact, and more interdiction of big drug syndicates and expansion of rehabilitation and treatment programs.
In front of all these dangers, the only response possible is to do our duty as human beings and as Filipinos.
In my case, I will respond as a leader, teacher, thinker, and lawyer, one committed to an absolute respect for human rights and to work passionately for social, climate, and environmental justice.
I am not partisan for or against the Duterte administration. There are things I support in what the government is doing. There are things I do not like. I will continue to keep that independent stance in 2018 and make sure that I bring a balanced and objective perspective in my writing, teaching, and in my legal and policy work. If granted an opportunity to take an academic leadership role, independence, balance, and objectivity will also be my stance.
I will certainly fight for democracy. Like Churchill, I believe that “Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the others.”
If constitutional change were pursued properly, I am open to it as I think the current constitutional framework has already outlived its usefulness. In principle, I support federalism and a mixed presidential and parliamentary system that is bicameral and with a Senate that is elected regionally.
In the economic realm, there are also definitely opportunities to bring the country to the right direction. We should engage constructively with the Duterte government to make TRAIN and Build Build Build work for the people.
In the environmental, climate change, and energy sectors, there are also good opportunities for better outcomes. We should work with the administration so that these can be maximized.
In politics, nothing is constant. In this country, change can come very quickly. People in power now should know better, that they will be not be there forever.
When change does come, we must maximize the opportunities for reform before the forces of reaction catch up again.
In The Gathering Storm, Churchill warns: “To each there comes in their lifetime a special moment when they are figuratively tapped on the shoulder and offered the chance to do a very special thing, unique to them and fitted to their talents. What a tragedy if that moment finds them unprepared or unqualified for that which could have been their finest hour.”
I suspect 2018 could be our finest hour as a people. Let’s step up to the challenge and build a better country. Indeed, in 2018, another Philippines is possible.
Happy New Year, everyone!
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