I first heard the phrase “Thucydides Trap” from former Senator Juan Ponce Enrile over coffee at our regular Saturday morning 365 Club. But recent and unfolding events in Asia and the Pacific had stoked my curious mind to look up the phrase. It was only then that the full dimension and implication of the phrase “Thucydides trap” dawned on me.
“Thucydides Trap,” according to history professor Gordon Allison , is a situation when a rising power threatens an established power. The origin of the phrase was named after Greek historian Thucydides who wrote the history of the Peloponesian War between rising power Athens and preeminent power Sparta.
A well read and ardent student of history, Enrile connected the war clouds looming in the Korean Peninsula and a collision course between a rising China and Pacific power America. The situation becomes even more incendiary when China’s surrogate state North Korea threatens the peace and stability of the region by launching long-range missiles across Japan, a US ally.
Then too, there are the high stakes of oil, gas and mineral reserves under the South China Sea which is the subject of territorial dispute among China, Vietnam, the Philippines, Brunei and Malaysia. Seeing that it cannot be passive in the escalating tension in the region, the United States adopted a pivot to Asia and a rebalancing of its forces from Europe. All we need for war to break out is a miscalculation.
With the North Atlantic Treaty Organization as shield, Europe can defend itself against Russia if it crosses the red line in Ukraine. The US, together with Great Britain and France, still form the core group of Nato.
Asia is where superpower US feels it must flex its muscle against a rising China whose growth as a military and economic power threatens its smaller neighbors. The Philippines, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan are US treaty allies and must not be left to a dominant China seeking hegemony in the region.
This US alliance with the four Asian countries, on the other hand, is seen by China as a strategic ring of steel to stop its rise as a global power. This is why the world will not see China reining in North Korea and the belligerent Kim Jong Un. In the grand scheme of things, the North Korean leader is the raging pit bull in Beijing’s backyard..
Goldberg to Cuba
In another part of the world, former US Ambassador to Manila Philip Goldberg is Washington’s new chief envoy to Havana, Cuba. That Goldberg a career diplomat in the State Department has been named US ambassador to Cuba is an attribute to the man. It will be recalled that Goldberg nearing completion of his posting to Manila was vilified by Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte who called him all sorts of name.
Naming Goldberg as the first ambassador to Cuba reflects President Donald Trump’s high esteem of the man to repair the decades—long strain between the US and the Castro-ruled island. The US has finally realized the importance of reopening diplomatic relations with Cuba. In a way, it is also seen by local observers as a rejection if not a rebuke of Duterte’s diatribe against Goldberg.
To Ambassador Goldberg’s credit, he kept his cool and just let Duterte go ballistic. He knew that by not taking on Digong, it was the Philippine president who was making a fool of himself. It was not the silence of the lamb but of a fox who knew how to play the game.
What brought on Duterte’s scathing, senseless spiel that included a reference to Goldberg’s sexual preference? Manila is a town which thrives on gossip. It must have been rumors that Goldberg who left Bolivia for allegedly attempting to destabilize President Evo Morales government was sent to Manila to do the same thing to Duterte. Actually, the American ambassador’s fault was expressing the US concern about the alleged extrajudicial killings in President Duterte’s bloody war on drugs. The bodies were piling up which drew the United Nations attention which also drew the ire of Duterte. Fast and furious with words, Duterte lashed out at the UN, former US President Barack Obama and the European Union. But that’s another story in the never ending saga of the colorful Philippine president.
I met Goldberg at the Manila Standard’s relaunch event held at the New World Hotel in Makati. He struck me as the quintessential diplomat. He was quiet yet observant, and you know he’s sizing up the person he has been introduced to.