BEIJING”•Chinese exports smashed expectations in November, a positive sign for the global economy, but analysts warned of an uncertain outlook as US President-elect Donald Trump prepares to take office, with Beijing’s trade policy in his sights.
China exports broke a seven-month losing streak, rising a forecast-beating 0.1 percent year-on-year to $152.2 billion in November, government data showed Thursday, as a plunging yuan helped boost shipments by making the country’s goods cheaper for overseas buyers.
The export figure smashed a Bloomberg News survey of economists predicting a five percent drop.
Imports also beat forecasts, suggesting the world’s number-two economy has stabilized on the back of aggressive policy easing to meet Beijing’s growth targets despite years of slowdown.
Imports rose 6.7 percent year-on-year to $152.2 billion in November, Customs data showed, far stronger than expectations of a 1.9 percent fall.
The trade surplus slipped to $44.6 billion in the month.
The readings were a massive improvement on the previous month, when exports dived 7.3 percent and imports fell 1.4 percent.
China is the world’s biggest trader in goods, and its performance affects partners from Australia to Zambia, which have been battered as its expansion has slowed to levels not seen in a quarter of a century.
Stable overseas demand and a weaker Chinese currency helped boost exports, with the yuan sliding against the dollar to eight-year lows in recent weeks.
But China’s trade faces an uncertain outlook as Donald Trump, who has blasted Beijing for protectionist policies and alleged currency manipulation, prepares to be sworn in as US president next month.
Trump promised during his campaign to declare China a currency manipulator on his first day in office, and threatened to slap 45 percent punitive tariffs on Chinese imports to protect jobs.
China, which manages the yuan’s movement, has in recent months steadily weakened the rate around which the currency is allowed to trade.
Last month it put it beyond 6.9 to the dollar for the first time in more than eight years as the surging greenback pressured the Chinese unit.
“Despite today’s positive surprise, the medium-term outlook for Chinese trade remains challenging,” said Julian Evans-Pritchard of Capital Economics in a note.
While developed economies are ending the year on a strong note, a broadly sluggish outlook for growth leaves little room for further upside in exports, he said, while the cooling of China’s red-hot property market will suppress demand for imported commodities.
Earlier Customs released figures in yuan terms that showed exports expanding 5.9 percent on-year, and imports rising 13.0 percent.
