HONG KONG—President Rodrigo Duterte’s visit to China this week signals a thawing of ties amid years of tension, and may encourage Beijing’s to invest long term in the Philippines, Chinese experts said.
Describing Duterte’s visit this week as a “milestone” in bilateral ties, the state-owned People’s Daily acknowledged the impact of Duterte’s visit to Beijing after many years of strained relations caused by a territorial dispute in the South China Sea.
Zhou Fangyin, a professor of Chinese foreign policy at the Guangdong Institute for International Strategies, told the People’s Daily that the preparations for Duterte’s visit mirror great sincerity—particularly from the Duterte administration—for thawing ties and for Beijing’s vision for a long-term investment in bilateral ties.
Zhou said potential outcomes of the visit might be “increased trade of agricultural produce with China,” as well as “infrastructure construction” that the Philippines needs.
The visit will be an important opportunity that both sides should grasp, and “Duterte possibly has his eyes on cooperation with China in the long run,” Zhou said.
The South China Sea dispute is unlikely to be resolved overnight, and neither country should give up working on the fragile ties, Zhou added.
Wu Shicun, president of the Hong Kong-based National Institute for South China Sea Studies, said “the times have changed” for China-Philippine ties, and he believes “the visit will navigate the relationship out of the record low and move on steadfastly.”
During his five-day trip to Hong Kong last August, former President and Special Envoy to China Fidel V. Ramos met with Wu, an old-time friend who stressed that making the resource-rich Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea open to fisherman from both Beijing and Manila could help reduce the growing tensions between the two nations brought about by their maritime territorial dispute.
However, before these joint explorations are materialized, Wu emphasized that the Philippines should first acknowledge Beijing’s dominion over the shoal.
After making a state visit to Brunei, Duterte will proceed to China onboard a chartered Philippine Airlines flight PR001, along with members of his Cabinet on Tuesday.
Duterte will be speaking then to members of the Filipino community in Beijing on Wednesday night, to be followed by formal welcoming ceremonies and bilateral talks at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.
Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang confirmed that Duterte will talk with President Xi Jinping as well as meet with Premier Li Keqiang and China’s top legislator, Zhang Dejiang.
Although neither side released details of the visit or possible outcomes, Geng said the two sides “are maintaining close contact about detailed arrangements for the visit and the outcome documents.”
It is hoped that the visit will put the bilateral ties “back on the track of being healthy and stable,” Geng said, adding that the Philippines is a “traditionally amicable neighbor of China.”
Before he was elected president, Duterte promised to use a jet ski to reclaim the disputed reef seized by China. Since taking office in June, he has extended the hand of friendship.
The tough-talking Duterte will bring up to 400 business leaders including some of the Philippines’ wealthiest tycoons on a four-day visit to Beijing starting on Tuesday. In doing so, he’ll become the first Philippine leader invited to the capital by Chinese President Xi Jinping for one-on-one talks.
“Duterte’s visit is the strongest signal so far that tensions between China and the Philippines have eased off,” said Li Jinming, professor of international relations at Xiamen University’s Research School of Southeast Asian Studies. “He’s right now distancing the country from the US, but some of that is just rhetoric. We don’t think he will or can cut the US off. We’d be curious to know how long these icy ties can last. It might just be a temporary thing.”
Duterte’s visit will provide an opportunity for a reset of relations with the Philippines’ biggest trading partner, which have been strained by territorial disputes in the South China Sea where as many as six claimants are vying for fish, oil and gas. In a speech Sunday, Duterte said he looked forward to exchanging views with Chinese leaders on how to further improve relations, and pledged not to give up on his nation’s claims in the waters.
Even though Filipinos of Chinese descent make up some of the Philippines’ most powerful families, China’s relationship with the Southeast Asian nation nosedived in 2012 after Beijing effectively took control of the Scarborough Shoal, a triangle of reefs and rocks located just 340 kilometers from Manila. The move prompted then-President Benigno Aquino III to take a firm stance against China while moving closer to the US, its top military ally.
Duterte has sought to shift that stance since taking office, threatening to downgrade military ties and using foul language to repudiate concerns of human-rights abuses in his war on drugs that has seen more than 3,000 people killed. In terms of relations with China, Duterte’s policies are closer to the days when President Gloria Arroyo ran the country from 2001 to 2010.
Arroyo had cut a deal for China’s Export-Import Bank to finance a $500 million rail project linking Manila to fast-growing provinces to the north, which was eventually scrapped under Aquino. She also approved a 2004 agreement on joint seismic surveys in the South China between China National Offshore Oil Corp. and the Philippine National Oil Company that has since lapsed.
Aquino made two visits to China, once in 2011 to meet with then-President Hu Jintao, and in 2014 to attend an APEC Summit. A planned visit by Aquino to China in 2013 was canceled due to tensions over the South China Sea. Arroyo made one state visit to China in 2004.
Duterte’s business delegation includes San Miguel Corp. president Ramon Ang; JG Summit Holdings Inc. president Lance Gokongwei; Enrique Razon, chairman of gaming company Bloomberry Resorts Corp. and global port operator International Container Terminal Services Inc.; Hans Sy, son of the Philippines’ richest man Henry Sy who controls SM Investments Corp.; and liquor and tobacco magnate Lucio Tan, who also owns Philippine Airlines Inc.
“Both will try to avoid the mention of the South China Sea ruling, as that’s a non-starter if two countries want to bring the bilateral ties forward,” Li said of the two leaders. “Duterte will throw the word out there that he wants the Philippine fishermen’s fishing rights to be protected in the waters around the Scarborough Shoal, on which China may say joint-fishing can be arranged.”
In return for not raising the South China Sea ruling in his talks with Xi, Duterte will be hoping he can persuade China to bring much needed investment to lagging infrastructure projects in the Philippines. Voters have grown increasingly frustrated with worsening traffic jams, outdated public transport services and patchy electricity supply.
China’s Foreign Ministry said on Oct. 12 that it hopes Duterte’s visit will help increase political mutual trust and strengthen pragmatic cooperation. At least a dozen agreements have been finalized for the visit, according to Zhao Jianhua, China’s ambassador to the Philippines.
“The Chinese side attaches importance to developing relations with the Philippines and stands ready to work with them to advance the bilateral relations in a sound and steady manner and create more benefits for both the two countries and peoples,” foreign ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said at a briefing last week.
China said on Friday that it wanted to strengthen its cooperation with the Philippines on combating drug use, with authorities planning for Duterte to attend several activities related to the fight against drugs during his stay in Beijing. Drug control agencies in both countries have initiated talks that are soon expected to deliver outcomes, the foreign ministry said.
References to the South China Sea in the joint statement will likely be vague, said Kang Lin, a deputy director of the National Institute for South China Sea Studies, China’s only state-backed research institution dedicated to research in the disputed waters.
“The statement may pledge to boost dialogue and communication on mutually concerned matters in order to control disagreements,” Kang said. “They may say they’ve reached consensus on jointly exploring the resources in the South China Sea. In one word: Soft ball approach is the way to go.”
Loans for railway or power grid projects in the Philippines could be facilitated through institutions such as the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, said Kang, adding that China may also may roll out measures to boost agricultural imports such as bananas and pineapples from the Philippines.
“The AIIB for us is the number one priority,” Philippines Finance Secretary Carlos Dominguez told reporters. “We will discuss with them our whole plan and we will match it with theirs. We’re just new, and I don’t know exactly what they want to do. We have to go to them and see what their priorities are also so we can match our priorities with them.” With Bloomberg