The Philippines won its case against China before the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague in a ruling handed down on Tuesday. What now?
The same question need not be asked of the Chinese who at the outset did not participate in The Hague hearing. China has made known it would and made known it’s going to ignore the court’s decision.
Manila, on the other hand, is in a bind. Although it won its case, filed in 2013, challenging China’s claim to 90 percent of the South China Sea, it cannot count on the court’s decision to be enforced. The Hague court is a United Nations agency. Both China and the Philippines are signatories to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. The landmark Hague ruling in essence rejects the Chinese claim of a nine-dash line that violates the 200-mile exclusive economic zone of the Philippines. The nearest Chinese coastline in Hainan is at least 900 miles away.
China’s flexing of its military muscle has been carrying out air and sea drills in the disputed area in the Spratlys ahead of The Hague decision. Earlier, China reclaimed land from the sea and converted the shoals, rocks and reefs into military installations to assert its sweeping nine-dash line that even included the West Philippine Sea. The Chinese encroachment has deprived Filipino fishermen living in the coastlines. This is arrogance of power, a dangerous and provocative act that could spark an armed confrontation with the United States which has remained a Pacific power although the US is not a signatory to Unclos.
The US has been steadfast in its stand to maintain the free and unimpeded sea lanes in the strategic waters where trillions of dollars in commercial cargo are carried by international vessels. The rich marine resources under the seabed include oil, natural gas and minerals, not to mention the vast fishing ground for the people in the region. Filipino fishermen have been deprived of their livelihood when Chinese gunboats drive them away from fishing ground near Bajo de Masincloc off Zambales since China seized Scarborough Shoal known as Panatag among the locals.
The Duterte administration has made known it’s willing to share the vast fishing grounds with the Chinese and that it’s open to joint exploration of the potential oil and gas resources in the West Philippine Sea off Palawan. Will Beijing accept this appeasement offer of Manila? The consequences of a hardline Chinese policy can be a scary scenario not only to the peace and stability of Asia-Pacific region but also to the whole world which relies on commercial cargo passing through the vital waterways of the South China Sea. More importantly, will the US allow a rising China to be more dominant than it already is in the region?
The UN and the The Hague court have no power to enforce the court ruling. The US, with its vast sea power and aircraft carriers, are plying the South China Sea and its warships sailing close by the man-made islands where China built air strips and docking berths for its warships.
Foreign Secretary Perfecto Yasay Jr. read a statement at 5 p.m. at the DFA briefing room calling for restraint among the nations in the area. It was a statement that did not say much. The press was at least given documents from The Hague decision for them to work with.
The milestone Hague ruling could encourage other SCS claimants—Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan—to file their case before the international arbitration court.
What are the implications of The Hague ruling for China if its does not withdraw and dismantle those military installations? The ruling is a loss of face for the Chinese, even if it defiantly says it will not abide by it. Not to do so would make China a rogue state and could lead to its being seen as an international outcast.
If the European Union and whatever is left of it plus the fragmented Association of Southeast Nations declare economic sanctions, China could feel the pinch particularly when its economy is in a slump.
The scenario of an economic boycott of Chinese products might be difficult to pull off. Most of the Asean countries and Europe including the US have strong trade ties with China. Economic sanctions and a trade embargo, however, could have a telling effect for China to rethink its foreign policy and to stop bullying its Asian neighbors.