The inflation rate in April is seen inching up to between 1.2 percent to 1.4 percent, slightly higher than the March figure, analysts said Monday.
Analysts and economists polled by The Standard said the April inflation likely rose following higher oil and electricity prices.
Standard Chartered Bank economist Jeff Ng said inflation increased 0.1 percentage point to 1.2 percent in April from 1.1 percent in the previous month because of higher electricity prices.
“[Inflation forecast for April] is 1.2 percent year-on-year. [This is] partly driven by higher energy inflation,” Ng said in an email.
Metrobank research analyst Pauline Revillas also sees inflation rising to 1.3 percent due to increases in food prices.
“We expect inflation for April to come in at 1.3 percent on the back of a broad increase in the prices of food and petroleum products,” Revillas said in an email.
ANZ Research economist Eugenia Victorino said the April inflation would also settle at 1.3 percent due to increased oil prices.
“We expect headline inflation in the Philippines to have risen to 1.3 percent year-on-year in April. Pump oil prices continued to rise, accompanied by increases in utilities. Sequentially, we expect consumer prices to have risen 0.15 percent month-on-month, while core inflation should have remained subdued at 1.6 percent year-on-year,” Victorino said.
“With inflation likely to remain with the central bank’s target range, we expect the BSP [Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas] to remain on hold to facilitate the seamless introduction of the interest rate corridor over the coming months,” she added.
Bank of the Philippine Islands Market Research and Strategy Officer Nicholas Mapa projected the highest inflation forecast of 1.4 percent for the month of April.
Mapa said inflation mightsettle at 1.4 percent following the accelerated pace of prices increases in electricity, gasoline and select food items such as fish.
“The El Niño heat is surely taking its toll on locally produced food prices, notably also in the price of fish. Electricity prices are also expected to boost the overall print, while fuel prices, as seen in recent price increases at the pump, may help push inflation closer to its target,” Mapa said.
The Finance department said earlier inflation would likely inche up to 1.3 percent in April following slight increases in food prices.
“The low price change is traced, among others, to comparatively lower electricity and fuel prices and moderate food price increase,” the Finance Undersecretary Gil Beltran said in an internal economic bulletin.
