With 12 days to go before the elections, who will it be? Mayor Rodrigo Duterte, Senator Grace Poe, Vice President Jejomar Binay, former secretary Mar Roxas or Senator Miriam Santiago?
If we go by the surveys, Mayor Duterte will win hands down. It is all over except the proclamation. This is in spite of the criticism on the mayor coming from many sectors of society. The surveys, however, seem to show the voters do not care.
But as we also know, surveys alone do not win elections. There are other factors. Money, political machinery and since 2010, the precinct count optical scan machines. In the last presidential debate in Pangasinan, Mar Roxas seemed to have all the answers and propounded on his programs with skill and authority. Senator Grace Poe also tried to portray her best quality, her honest persona while Mayor Duterte was unusually subdued. The feisty Senator Santiago was uncharacteristically unable to demonstrate her usual wit and trademark one-liners that have made her the darling of the millennials. Perhaps her medical condition has taken its toll. Despite this, however, two percent to three percent of voters would still vote for her. Sadly, she will have to be taken out as a serious contender.
VP Binay, on the other hand, was also not in his usual combative self. He gave the impression that he was not trying his best.
With election day so close, one wonders what the four serious contenders are doing to ensure victory.
Mar Roxas has to win not only for himself but also to shield the band of merry men of sherwood forest led by President Aquino from possible corruption charges that will surely come if he does not win the presidency. The protection of the President is one of the most important objectives of this political exercise as far as the administration is concerned. President Aquino, for his part, is not leaving any stone unturned to ensure the victory of his surrogate.
Money, the power of the government, and lest we forget, the so-called special operations. There is always a special operations group in every election in this country, be it local or national. This can take many forms, from activities allowed by law to outright illegal actions. For the Mar campaign, the use of government resources has been a source of criticism and we saw this in the case of the President’s sister Kris when she used the presidential helicopter to campaign for Mar.
We must not also overlook the distinct probability of electronic manipulation as part of special operations by all political camps. Since Mar Roxas is so far behind in the polls, it is difficult to think that this aspect is not being considered by their camp. If ever this is going to be employed by the government, I suspect that the President will rely on his man Friday Jojo Ochoa, who has actually become a very powerful person in the country—some say equalling the power of the President.
Assuming this is true, this is probably one of the reasons why Mar Roxas is also so confident of winning. But VP Binay is equally confident of winning in spite of his fast- deteriorating poll numbers. This showed in that last debate. Maybe he has also an ace hidden up his sleeve. The recruitment of Ronnie Puno as reported in the media a few weeks ago brought a lot of rejoicing in the VP Binay camp and seemed to have rejuvenated the campaign of the vice president. The administration has been working relentlessly to bring him down.
Ronnie Puno has of course the reputation of making presidents. This is the reason he is a much sought-after political operator in every election. This was built with years of experience which started during Martial Law when he worked in the Ministry of Interior and Local Government under the late Minister Jose Roño. In the 2010 elections, the last time I had a firsthand knowledge of what happened, Ronnie Puno was then the powerful DILG secretary and worked for the administration candidate.
During that election, much as he tried to prevent the victory of President Aquino, he failed simply because the lead of President Aquino was such that it was impossible to reverse. I know that Puno’s group also tried to erase the result of the presidential elections but failed.
Since the electronic counting was still at its infancy in 2010, a lot of errors were committed. Since then, however, the technology for electronic fraud must have improved to a level that is now a lot more sophisticated. Unfortunately, I am no longer able to verify this. What I know is that Jojo Ochoa and Ronnie Puno have been friends since 2010. The last time I had any contact with people who knew Puno’s work in the 2010 elections, was that both he and Jojo Ochoa also worked together in the 2013 elections. This was in the middle of 2013. It stands to reason therefore that both could be working together again if at all.
But Ronnie Puno as we know is now with VP Binay while Jojo Ochoa is with the administration. Since both VP Binay and Mar Roxas cannot obviously both win, the side that actually possesses the technology will win. But we do not know whether Mayor Duterte and Senator Poe also have something up their sleeve. That’s also possible. What is scary would be if we end up with a president winning because he or she has the better special operations group.
