With the election barely a month away and his poll-survey numbers placing him consistently in third place, Presidential candidate Mar Roxas and his supporters undoubtedly are wondering whether the former Secretary of Interior and Local Government can catch up with the No. 1 (Rodrigo Duterte, per the latest poll results). The answer is, it can be done, and there are historical antecedents to support such a positive view.
The classic example of a dramatic turnaround in a Presidential candidate’s electoral fortunes is, of course, the 1948 contest in the US between Vice-President Harry S. Truman and the popular Republican governor and former prosecutor of New York, Thomas Dewey. The contrast between former Senator Truman, who had succeeded to the Presidency upon President Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s death, and Governor Dewey was clear. Truman was colorless (like Roxas?) and unflamboyant, whereas Governor Dewey was very charming and exceedingly popular with the press.
So strong did the popular tide appear to be running in favor of the Republican challenger that much of the political chatter was about the changes and rearrangements that would take place in Washington after the November 1948 election. It all seemed like a foregone conclusion. Indeed, one of the US’s leading newspapers, the Chicago Tribune, had already prepared an Election Day first edition bearing the headline “Dewey Defeats Truman.”
But as Election Day came to an end it increasingly became apparent that Harry Truman had beaten Thomas Dewey comfortably. One of the iconic photographs of that time was of a very pleased Harry Truman displaying the “Dewey Defeats Truman” headline of the Chicago newspaper.
It goes without saying that a lot of so-called political experts and election analysts became red-faced as a result of Governor Dewey’s defeat. (In contrast with Philippine culture, the governor lost no time calling the White House to congratulate the victorious Vice-President). Obviously, they failed to give enough weight to the other factors in the contest, including the courageous decisions that President Truman had made during his three-year Presidency.
The Truman-Dewey episode has remained the classic exemplar of the expression, popular in sports, that “It ain’t over till it’s over.”
Another electoral event that Mar Roxas and his supporters need to keep in mind as they ponder the whys and the hows of his weak survey ratings is the 1992 contest between former Secretary of National Defense and EDSA hero Fidel V. Ramos and former Secretary of Agrarian Reform, Miriam Defensor-Santiago. The 1992 election was a seven-candidate affair, but it was clear that the contest was really between FVR and the colorful, feisty Miriam Santiago. The former judge was undoubtedly popular—especially with the young voters—and she had powerful backers. In contrast, FVR only had President Cory Aquino’s personal backing to count on. (I know this first-hand because I was one of the handful of FVR admirers who organized the Lakas Tao Party for him).
Considering the strength of the other candidates—Speaker of the post-EDSA House of Representatives Ramon V. Mitra, the revered Jovito Salonga, Vice-President Salvador Laurel, tycoon Eduardo Cojuangco Jr. and Imelda Marcos—Ramos’s candidacy seemed forlorn and doomed. Miriam Santiago was scoring a lot of electoral points, and Mitra had the powerful LDP (Laban ng Demokratikong Pilipino) at his beck and call.
But FVR and his supporters kept the faith and hung in there. Their tenacity and fortitude were rewarded. As the results trickled in during the first 72 hours following Election Day, it became increasingly clear that FVR was the man of the hour and he would win the election by the skin of his teeth. FVR became the first plurality President in Philippine political history; his share of the total votes cast was just under 24 percent.
To Mar and his supporters I say this: Keep the faith and hang in there till Election Day. Remember Harry Truman and remember FVR. It ain’t over till it’s over.
E-mail: rudyromero777@yahoo.com