As the Filipino electorate expects the momentum of the campaign season to build during the first week of 2016, an international development has barged its way to the front pages of broadsheets and in social media newsfeeds. This one is more pressing and alarming than climate change.
According to reports just four days into the new year, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has broken off diplomatic ties with Iran after the kingdom-nation’s embassy was ransacked by protesters in retaliation for the execution of Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr two days before. Al-Nimr is a Shiite cleric in the dominantly Sunni country of Saudi Arabia, who has been reportedly critical of the royal family, and was said to have attracted the following of the young Shiites in the country and the ire of the Sunni government and law enforcement. The Shia-led Iran immediately condemned the execution and threatened a backlash against their longtime rival country, calling the act an “unjust aggression” against Shiites, alongside ensuing protests from the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia where most Shia Muslims reside.
The almost automatic backlash and escalation of the tension between Saudi Arabia and Iran comes as no surprise for those following politics in the Middle East. With a rivalry stemming back since the 1979 Iranian revolution, the developments of the past week are but the latest strings in the ever-tangling web of issues and alliances. The Sunni-Shia conflict is but part of this rivalry, as the countries has time and again seen themselves in the opposite sides of conflicts fighting proxy wars in Lebanon in the 1980s, in Iraq in the 2000s, and currently in the Syrian crisis and the strife in Yemen.
One can even go far as to say that this rivalry is fueling the Sunni-Shia conflict, which started out as a divergence in the dogma between two branches of the Muslim faith on who should be the rightful and legitimate successor of the Prophet Muhammad. The two factions lived in relative peace despite the difference in position on whether the leadership of the Muslim nation goes to elected leaders according to the Sunnis, or the Prophet’s bloodline according to the Shiites. Before the Iranian revolution, the most notable Sunni-Shia conflict was during the Ottoman-Saffavid wars in the 17th century, which was more political in nature rather than ideological or religious. It was during the 1970s that sectarian tensions within and amongst Muslim nations rose, mainly due to the political factions grounding policy on religion during the course of jockeying for power and influence.
Given the situation, we can expect the line drawn in the Middle Eastern sand to be drawn deeper and clearer. Allies of the two countries would rush to their side, including Sunni-Shia factions within countries. Neutral parties, on the other hand, would appeal for cooler heads and have Saudi Arabia and Iran get back to the negotiating table to talk about peace in Syria, where they are currently waging their proxy wars. Western countries have been trying to get the Saudi Arabia and Iran to sit together and talk towards peace in Syria, but it has to be noted which countries the loyalties of United States and Russia lie. What a tangled web has been woven.
For a beauty pageant-crazy country like the Philippines, we can only hope for world peace to prevail when it comes to Middle Eastern conflict. Our overseas Filipino workers, in fact, have tended to turn to the Middle East for employment opportunities. According to the latest survey on OFWs, 24.8 percent of the 2.3 million OFWs prefer to work in Saudi Arabia, and close behind are the United Arab Emirates with 15.6 percent, and Kuwait and Qatar each with 5.3 percent. At least half of the OFW population, or around 1,173,000 Filipinos are potentially sitting on a lit powder keg.
Of course, the present administration should be on a hairline trigger to respond to the needs of OFWs when conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran escalates further. The question is now how the new administration, to be determined in five months, would address such a challenge of enormous magnitude as soon as it sets foot in Malacañang. We could be talking about mass efforts of repatriation, and upon that eventuality find jobs and livelihood opportunities for the returnees. By May, we will need national leaders that have the knowhow, experience, savvy, and nerves that could hit the ground running to respond to issues posed by the situation in the Middle East.
Aside from utmost importance of protecting our OFWs, our next president will have to immediately grasp the intricacies of foreign relations and Muslim affairs. How the conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran could possibly impact the Mindanao peace process—not to mention the fight against the threat posed by the Daesh/ISIS/ISIL—has yet to be explored and discussed. More than the past elections, the ability and platform of a presidential candidate in handling the complicated area of foreign relations should be an important campaign issue.