This early, the El Niño weather phenomenon has already reared its ugly head.
Philippine agriculture production dropped 0.37 percent in the second quarter from a year ago, as the dry spell reduced rice and corn harvest, data from the Philippine Statistics Authority show.
The second-quarter contraction in farm and fishery output reversed the 1.8-percent growth in the first quarter and the 2.73-percent expansion a year ago. It is also expected to drag down the gross domestic product growth in the second quarter, as agriculture accounts for nearly 15 percent of the economy.
The prolonged dry spell and insufficient rainfall in many parts of the Philippines had significantly cut palay production in the April-to-June period. Corn production, the statistics agency noted, fell 15.8 percent to 1 million MT in the second quarter from 1.2 million MT last year. Lower corn harvest was observed in the Davao region, Soccsksargen, Cagayan Valley, Northern Mindanao and the Bicol area amid insufficient water supply.
The agricultural data followed the report of Maryland, US-based Climate Prediction Center last week that predicted El Niño will last at least until early spring, and it could be one of the strongest in 65 years. The center’s forecast models show that El Niño will peak sometime in late fall or early winter this year in the northern hemisphere. Temperatures in parts of the Pacific may be close to 2 degrees Celsius above normal, it added.
The Philippine government, meanwhile, said it was bracing for the onslaught of the dry spell. The Department of Science and Technology, according to Malacañang, has drawn up guidelines on cloud-seeding and made preparations for irrigation to help farmers who are most likely to suffer the adverse effects of the prolonged dry spell.
El Niño may occur more frequently in the succeeding years due to climate change. The government, thus, must draw up long-term measures, such as constructing more reservoirs or dams to impound water during the rainy season, to mitigate the impact of future El Niños.
Band-aid solutions like cloud-seeding may help, but they do not address the fundamental problems of farmers—low output and limited access to water sources.