The Philippines observed a “decline in the frequency” of tropical cyclones forming and entering the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), according to a weather expert.
Analiza Solis, chief of the Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section at the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), attributes this trend to global warming, which is a consequence of climate change affecting not only the Philippines but the entire planet.
Solis noted that these cyclones, however, are becoming increasingly intense.
She shared her insights on current trends in media forecasting during a seminar-workshop titled “Covering the Crisis: Media Workshop on Disaster Communications,” held on Saturday at the Philippine International Convention Center (PICC) in Pasay City. The event was organized by the Presidential Communications Office (PCO).
“During the past 10 years, we have been averaging 19 to 20 typhoons per year. Right now, we seldom reach the 19th or 20th mark. Based on our historical record of tropical cyclone occurrences and frequency from 1948 to 2023, there is a decreasing trend in the number of tropical cyclones forming but an increasing trend in the intensity of these typhoons,” Solis said.
Recently, the Philippines experienced an unusual event when six typhoons—Severe Tropical Storm “Kristine,” Super Typhoon “Leon,” Typhoon “Marce,” Severe Tropical Storm “Nika,” Super Typhoon “Ofel,” and Super Typhoon “Pepito”—struck the country within just one month, leaving widespread destruction. These storms posed severe threats of heavy rainfall, powerful winds, flooding, and life-threatening storm surges.
Solis attributes this new pattern primarily to global warming, a consequence of climate change.
According to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), global warming refers to the long-term increase in the planet’s average temperature.
Climate change encompasses not only global warming but also a broader range of changes impacting the planet, such as rising sea levels and shrinking mountain glaciers.
“The warming of ocean temperatures contributes more significantly compared to land warming. We can observe its effects during El Niño. When La Niña occurs, there is only a slight drop in ocean temperature. This indicates that our ocean temperatures are getting hotter, which greatly contributes to global warming,” Solis noted.
Meanwhile, the workshop also highlighted the crucial role of the media in conveying key warnings from PAGASA to the public to prevent loss of lives and damage to property during calamities.
Manuel Mogato, a multi-awarded journalist, recalled his experience covering Super Typhoon “Yolanda” in Tacloban in 2013. This storm was one of the deadliest and most destructive typhoons to hit the country, claiming around 6,300 lives with 1,600 others missing.
“There are many lessons that can be learned from the Yolanda experience. First and foremost is that accurate, fair, and understandable information must be disseminated to the public to avert disaster. Journalists must avoid jargon and explain scientific terms in layman’s terms for the public to understand the dangers, risks, and threats to their lives,” he said.
“We can help save lives or worsen people’s situations and cause disasters if we don’t do our jobs,” added Mogato, a Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist.
