Most economists expect Philippine inflation to remain below the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) target in December 2025, providing room for policymakers to focus on economic growth, a survey showed.
Five of six analysts polled projected price growth to slow further from the 1.5 percent recorded in November. The forecasts align with the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) prediction that December inflation would likely settle between 1.2 percent and 2.0 percent, below its official 2 percent to 4 percent target range.
The BSP will release the official December inflation figure later this week.
Security Bank chief economist Angelo Taningco and Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. chief economist Michael Ricafort both pegged the rate at 1.2 percent.
Taningco cited price reductions in rice, vegetables, fruits, oil, petroleum and electricity as the primary drivers.
Ricafort said a slightly stronger peso and lower global crude oil prices also helped temper costs.
Oikonomia Advisory and Research Inc. economist Matt Erece and Metrobank chief economist Nicholas Mapa both forecast headline inflation at 1.4 percent.
Erece observed that food prices remained fairly stable despite typical holiday spending. Metrobank analysts said while festive demand for meat and fish exerted upward pressure, the impact was softened by lower electricity rates and slower increases in pump prices.
Reyes Tacandong & Co. senior adviser Jonathan Ravelas offered the lowest estimate at 1.1 percent. He attributed the subdued figure to a balancing act where rising holiday costs were cushioned by lower utility prices and a calming core inflation rate.
Bank of the Philippine Islands lead economist Jun Neri provided the highest estimate at 1.7 percent, pointing toward continued price pressure from rice and vegetables.
Neri expects inflation to average 3.3 percent in 2026 and predicts the BSP will implement two more interest rate cuts as economic growth remains below potential.
Erece said that unless external shocks occur, inflation should remain within the target range even as the central bank eases monetary policy.
This stability gives policymakers the necessary headroom to shift their focus toward stimulating economic activity, he said.
