The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) on Thursday maintained its economic growth forecast for the Philippines for 2025 and 2026, citing weaker exports amid the expected impact of United States tariffs.
In the latest quarterly update of the ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook (AREO), AMRO kept its gross domestic product (GDP) growth projection for the Philippines at 5.6 percent in 2025 and 5.5 percent in 2026.
This puts the country’s economic growth on a downward trend from the 5.7-percent GDP output recorded in 2024.
Inflation is also expected to average 1.8 percent in 2025 and 3.2 percent in 2026.
AMRO group head and lead economist Runchana Pongsaparn said the slower growth projected for 2025 and 2026 compared with 2024 is “partly because of the weaker export, just like other countries in the region, where we expect that the impact of the US tariff is going to kick in towards the end of the year and next year.”
Despite this, Pongsaparn noted that AMRO still expects consumption to grow steadily, underpinned by a strong labor market, lower inflation and robust remittances.
“Private investment, sentiment, and export performance are the ones who probably moderate the growth a little bit because of the external uncertainty related to the US tariff,” Pongsaparn said.
For the broader ASEAN+3 region, growth is expected to reach 4.1 percent in 2025 and 3.8 percent in 2026, an upward revision from its July forecast of 3.8 percent for this year and 3.6 percent for 2026.
This stronger outlook is underpinned by robust performance in the first half of the year and stronger-than-expected export momentum, partly due to the front-loading of shipments ahead of the US tariffs. The solid growth was also supported by firm domestic demand, resilient private consumption, and improved investment activities.
However, higher US tariffs are expected to weigh on external demand and later dampen growth in the region in 2025 and into 2026. AMRO said this marks a slowdown from the 4.3 percent ASEAN+3 growth in 2024, with a sharper deceleration expected in ASEAN countries.
AMRO chief economist Dong He said that while intra-regional trade and domestic demand have become increasingly important growth drivers, “the region remains deeply connected to the global financial system and is therefore not insulated from global shocks.”
“Overall, the region’s financial system remains resilient, although pockets of vulnerabilities persist,” He said.
Export-oriented corporate sectors, particularly smaller firms with significant exposure to US demand, may face pressure on profit margins amid shifting trade dynamics.
AMRO also noted that persistent inflation pressures in the US, potentially fueled by higher import tariffs, could complicate the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance and trigger global spillovers.
Vietnam is projected to be the fastest-growing economy in the region at 7.5 percent in 2025. Other growth forecasts for 2025 include Indonesia, 5.0 percent; Cambodia, 4.9 percent; Lao, 4.4 percent; Malaysia, 4.3 percent; Singapore, 2.6 percent; Thailand, 2.2 percent; Brunei Darussalam, 1.2 percent; and Myanmar, negative 1.0 percent.
For the plus-three economies, China is seen growing 4.8 percent; Hong Kong, 2.4 percent; Japan, 1.0 percent; and Korea, 0.9 percent.
