Manulife Investment Management expects the Philippines’ September inflation rate to rise above 2 percent on food supply disruptions from recent typhoons and a suspension of rice imports.
Jean de Castro, head of fixed income at Manulife Investment Management, said recent movements in global fuel prices and peso volatility could also add to inflation risks.
“Food supply shocks from recent typhoons and rice import restrictions will likely influence the BSP’s September inflation forecast,” De Castro said.
“Against this backdrop, headline inflation in the coming months could exceed 2 percent with additional upside risks if weather disturbances persist,” she said.
She said “movements in global oil prices and peso volatility may also introduce risks, in addition to higher import costs and waning base effects from 2024’s low inflation levels.”
Despite these pressures, De Castro still expects inflation to remain within the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) 2 percent to 4 percent target range.
The inflation rate in August was 1.5 percent, up from 0.9 percent in July.
