The Philippines could face an 18.1% GDP loss by 2070 due to climate change, an ADB report warns. The report emphasizes mobilizing private capital to bridge the significant climate finance gap for adaptation efforts in the Asia-Pacific region.
The Philippines could lose 18.1 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP) by 2070 due to climate change under a high-emissions scenario, according to a report by the Asian Development Bank (ADB).
The ADB’s 2024 Asia-Pacific Climate Report projected that climate change, intensified by high emissions, could cause a 16.9 percent GDP loss for countries across the Asia and Pacific region by 2070. The Philippines was identified as one of the countries where these losses would be concentrated.
The report noted that actual losses could be even higher, given uncertainties from sector-specific shocks.
“The estimates can also be considered conservative in that the modelling only reflected a subset of actual climate change impacts,” the report said.
“For example, effects on human health beyond labor productivity are not included, nor are effects on ecosystem services, such as pollination, regulation of pests and diseases, or human conflict. In general, these omissions mean that a more comprehensive accounting would find even higher losses,” it said.
It said that for the Philippines, substantial losses are projected in natural resource sectors, including agriculture, forestry and fisheries, potentially amounting to a 4.7-percent loss of the country’s GDP.
The report said climate change is already irreversible, making climate adaptation essential for the Asia and Pacific region. The ADB recommends that scaling up adaptation efforts should be based on three policy actions: assessing and communicating climate risks, systematic investment planning and prioritization, and securing and sustaining adaptation financing.
Economists, however, found that despite progress in scaling up financial resources for climate adaptation, financing remains inadequate.
“Amid urgent efforts to combat climate change, a substantial financing gap still exists,” the report said. “Climate finance has been growing over time, but it has not kept pace with the rapidly rising financing needed to fight climate change.”
To address this gap, ADB economists and experts suggest that mobilizing private capital can significantly benefit the Asia and Pacific region.
Private capital should account for around 90 percent of climate finance needs by 2030, driven by the increasing demand for climate finance and limited public resources.
Individual economies need to attract more private capital and build investor confidence, it said. However, misaligned and uncertain climate policies, along with a lack of climate-enabling financial markets, were identified as hindrances.
“We suggest that more aligned and more comprehensive policy might work. And then on top of that, a holistic policy package will also serve,” Shu (Grace) Tian, a principal economist from ADB, said during a webinar on July 24, 2025
“For example, just a short example, for example, transportation sector. If you already introduced some transportation emission efficiency standards, and then to help people to meet such a standard, actually, it’s better the policy is also there to support EV charging infrastructure and driving incentives like easier to get a plate or something like that,” she said.
Shu Tian also cited the need for the financial system to mainstream the pricing of climate risks to incentivize the shift of capital towards climate-related investments. A more comprehensive and faster adoption of climate disclosure is necessary, she said.
“We need to equip the investment to transition projects with more credible transition taxonomies to foster the transition planning and investments of investors,” Shu Tian said.
“And then lastly, it is useful that a government to adopt innovative de-risking instruments to attract private investors with different risk return preferences and amenities,” she said.
