The outcome of yesterday’s Senate election could not be more crucial for Vice-President Duterte. An impeachment court verdict of convictions will carry with it, as part of the penalty, Sara Duterte’s permanent disqualification from holding public office.
Mid-term elections, which are held between Presidential elections, are also important because they serve as referenda on the performance of an administration in the first half of its term of office, especially its management of the economy. Yesterday’s political exercise was no ordinary mid-term election; its outcome with regard to the incoming Senate will go a long way toward determining the course of the economy in the years following 2028.
The explanation for this judgement can be summed up in one word: impeachment, or, more specifically, the forthcoming impeachment trial of Vice-President Sara Duterte. The trial will be held in July, and, as provided by the Constitution, will be conducted by the Senate.
A two-third vote of the Senate will be needed to convict the Vice-President on the charges stated in the Articles of Impeachment; conversely, a pro-conviction vote of less than two-thirds of the Senate will result in Sara Duterte’s acquittal of the charges. From this Constitutional provision the importance of the outcome of yesterday’s Senate election—more specifically, the party profile of the victorious Magic 12—readily becomes apparent.
The Alyansa Para sa Bagong Pilipinas hope that yesterday the voters elected Alyansa candidates sufficiently numerous to bring the number of pro-conviction Senators up to two-thirds of the Senate. PDP-Laban hopes that enough of its candidates will be elected to deny the pro-conviction forces two-thirds of the Senate.
The outcome of yesterday’s Senate election could not be more crucial for Vice-President Duterte. An impeachment court verdict of convictions will carry with it, as part of the penalty, Sara Duterte’s permanent disqualification from holding public office. If she is acquitted, the Vice-President is certain to be the Presidential standard bearer of the Opposition in the 2028 election; a verdict of conviction will take her out of the running and put an end to her political career.
If Sara Duterte is convicted by the Senate, the nation will not have to think about a Duterte presidential candidacy and electoral platform, but if she is able to survive the impeachment trial, Filipinos will have to ponder what Sara Duterte will have in mind for the Philippine economy.
If the Vice-President does become the Opposition candidate for President in the 2028 election, what will her economic program look like?
The short answer is: Filipino don’t know. Sara Duterte has never articulated any position or views on the economy or on any of the major economic and social issues of the day. Outside of her having been mayor of a city, Sara Duterte’s exposure to national issues has been as the head of the Department of Education. From any standpoint—policymaking, fiscal management and operational efficiency—her two-year leadership of the Department of Education has been universally adjudged as being near-disastrous. Sara Duterte had neither vision nor mission for the Cabinet department with the largest share of the national budget.
In the aftermath of yesterday’s election the people of this country are asking themselves what’s in store for them—especially the Philippines economy—in 2028 and beyond. They think of Sara Duterte and they find the prospect highly unreassuring. (llagasjessa@yahoo.com)