The strong proposal by experts from the independent OCTA Research Group submitted to the national government not to ease COVID-19 restrictions in the “NCR plus” bubble merits close and thoughtful attention.
We agree with the observation that while the spread of the disease has shown signs of slowing down, the reproduction number of the virus should be less than 1 for several weeks. A reproduction number of 1 or higher indicates sustained transmission of the virus.
The reproduction number in the NCR Plus bubble—Metro Manila and the provinces of Rizal, Laguna, Bulacan and Cavite—is currently 0.99.
In a webinar organized by the Cardinal Santos Medical Center, biologist and priest Nicanor Austriaco urged the national government, “as one possible benchmark for changing quarantine levels, is not to exit MECQ (modified enhanced community quarantine) until at least the R is less than 0.9 in a sustained manner.”
Experts, including OCTA fellow Prof. Guido David, have pointed out the NCR Plus bubble areas are “currently somewhat unstable and the reason why it’s unstable is because not all the local government units are decreasing and so you always have the possibility that as some of the LGUs recover there will be an outbreak in one LGU that will spill over to the adjacent LGUs.”
The average daily cases in the NCR in the past week has been 4,200, as against 3,200 cases two weeks ago.
Austriaco has painted a scenario as regards decongesting hospitals with COVID cases, which would depend on the sustained reproduction number that authorities can maintain in the next few weeks, adding “We are looking for a consistent pattern of decrease throughout all the 17 LGUs for a significant period of time before we know we have successfully passed through the surge.”
Earlier on, experts studying the coronavirus pandemic said more people in virus epicenter Metro Manila are dying due to COVID-19.
Experts have noted that the strictest lockdown measure imposed in Metro Manila and the identified four provinces nearby—the Enhanced Community Quarantine, which was eventually downgraded to Modified Enhanced Community Quarantine—was effective in reducing the growth rate and reproduction number of the virus.
In its report to the Inter-Agency Task Force for the Management of Emerging Infectious Diseases (IATF), OCTA said it observed negative one-week virus growth rates in the cities of Pasay, Marikina, Mandaluyong, Taguig, Manila, Makati, Las Piñas, Valenzuela and Quezon City—but “barely” in Parañaque and Caloocan.
It said the trend was “very encouraging” but it was still too early to say whether there was a downward trend in these areas, noting that testing was 20 percent lower during the recent Holy Week.