Sun Life Investment Management and Trust Corp. (SLIMTC) chief investment officer Michael Gerard Enriquez projects the Philippine economy will log 4 percent to 5 percent gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2025, below the typical 5 to 6 percent range, citing delayed or reduced public spending.
Enriquez said growth is likely to remain “flat” over the next three quarters in 2026 as local and foreign investor sentiment continues to be dampened by political controversies and soft government expenditure.
Recent government issues have weakened confidence, slowing the flow of capital into the country, he said in a Monday interview.
“It has affected investor sentiment… There are a lot of questions on the stability of the economy and of the government,” Enriquez said.
He noted that the administration’s move toward increased transparency, including updates from President Marcos on arrest warrants issued in relation to the controversy, could help rebuild trust.
SLIMTC’s forecast for 4 percent to 5 percent GDP growth through 2025 is primarily due to the slowdown in public spending. “We’ll have to ride this in the next three quarters before we see any significant movement,” Enriquez stated.
Support from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, particularly through policy rate cuts to spur consumer spending and capital formation, will be crucial. He said private investments should help bridge the gap left by slower government projects.
Enriquez also said low consumer confidence continues to suppress demand, with insurance penetration remaining at 1.5 percent of GDP. Improving financial market conditions typically encourage policy purchases.
For 2025, he said the Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) may stay near the 6,000 level, citing ongoing volatility despite recent short-term gains.
Easing long-term interest rates, however, signal a positive outlook that “people are still lending to the government.”
