BANGKOK — Death, detention and dissolution have decimated Aung San Suu Kyi’s political party, easing the way for groups backed by Myanmar’s ruling military to claim victory at elections expected next year, analysts say.
The death this week of National League for Democracy (NLD) vice president Zaw Myint Maung — a close confidante of Suu Kyi — was the latest blow to a party crippled by the junta’s crackdown.
It came after party co-founder Tin Oo — a military general turned democracy activist — died of old age in June.
Nobel laureate Suu Kyi remains enduringly popular in Myanmar and the NLD would undoubtedly win a third landslide victory if she was to lead it into a free election, analysts say.
But the junta dissolved the party last year for failing to re-register under a tough new military-drafted electoral law, and it is barred from any new vote.
State media said on Wednesday that junta chief Min Aung Hlaing “clearly reaffirmed” the military’s plans to hold elections next year.
Many in Myanmar would see the polls as a “cunning” attempt by the junta to “earn some veneer of legitimacy”, said Htwe Htwe Thein of Curtin University in Australia.
NLD members still inside the country are struggling to “reorganise” the party due to the junta’s continuing crackdown, one senior member recently released from prison told AFP, requesting anonymity.
The NLD was forged in the bloody aftermath of a failed democracy uprising in 1988 that catapulted Suu Kyi to global fame.
For decades it was the main democratic opposition to the military’s iron grip over Myanmar, with its members enduring harsh repression.
After the generals enacted democratic reforms, it won crushing election victories in 2015 and 2020, using the logo of a fighting peacock.
But in February 2021, hours before the new parliament was to be sworn in, the military mounted a coup and detained the NLD’s top leadership.
Weeks after the coup, former NLD spokesman Nyan Win died in custody of Covid-19.
Zaw Myint Maung died of leukaemia aged 72 on Monday, days after being released from military custody.
Suu Kyi is serving a lengthy jail sentence, as is former president Win Myint, following a trial in a junta court that critics say was a sham designed to remove them from politics.
