Among the Philippines’ 16 major cities, the Summer Capital is most vulnerable to the negative effects of climate change, according to a study.
“Rain is going to be Baguio’s bane,” said the Business Risk Assessment and the Management of Climate Change Impacts conducted by the World Wide Fund Philippines and the Bank of the Philippine Islands Foundation, Inc.
The city already has the highest average rainfall in the country at 3,914 millimeter per year, which makes its prone to flooding and landslides, the study said.
The study had three vector analysis on each city’s Climate/Environmental Exposure, Socio-economic Sensitivity and Adaptive Sensitivity which aimed to look into the different sectors and activities that may be “steering their economy toward decreased viability and increased vulnerability.”
Official records show there is not only an increasing trend in the average annual rainfall in Baguio City over the last 20 years but it has also recorded the highest annual rainfall in the country in 1910; highest rainfall in 24 hours in the world in 1911; and highest rainfall worldwide in 48 hours in 1950.
In 2001, the city also recorded the highest rainfall in an hour at 1,085mm.
Baguio City is also exposed to a number of climate-aggravated effects, the study said.
These effects include seismic faults, landslides, earthquakes and even flooding.
“Yes, it floods in Baguio when it’s not supposed to,” said Lory Tan, chief executive officer and vice chairman of the Board of WWF Philippines. Proof of this phenomenon, Tan said, are flooding incidents in the past at City Camp Lagoon, Burnham Park, Queen of Peace, Lower Lourdes Extension and Lower Rock Quarry.
The flooding, according to the study, is aggravated by the human footprint which has undeniably increased as the population of the city also increased.
Based on the Philippine Statistics Authority Census in 2010, Baguio City’s burgeoning population has already reached 318,676 with a growth rate of 2.36 percent annually.
“Stretched away beyond the original limits it was designed for, Baguio City has allowed extensive land conversion, with its booming population establishing large communities over vast track of its hillsides,” the study said, highlighting its population density which has increased from 3,186 per square kilometer in 1990 to 5,668/sq km in 2010.
In addition, the study also noted the increase in housing units from 13,471 in 1990 to 34,247 in 2010.
The study claimed environmental management, particularly Baguio City’s watersheds, urbanization and its population growth will “play major roles in defining continued viability of the city’s economy.”
“The city’s opportunity is to look beyond its boundaries, beyond BLISTT, identify its unique competencies, then craft a ‘climate smart’ long-term development plan that defines a regional role for the city within CAR and Region 1,” the study suggested.
If the City wanted to take itself away from the harmful effects of climate change, there has to be a multi-year plan for it, with the government, the private sector and the public taking active part, the study said.
For business to be continuously viable, “they should focus on striking a sustainable balance between local ambition, demographic facts and the emerging realities of climate change,” the study said.
The other cities covered by the study were San Fernando in La Union; Laoag, Ilocos Norte; Tuguegarao, Cagayan; Dagupan, Pangasinan; Angeles, Pampanga; Batangas, Batangas; Legazpi, Albay; Lucena, Quezon; Iloilo, Iloilo; Cebu, Cebu; Tagbilaran, Bohol; Davao; Cagayan de Oro; Butuan; and Zamboanga.
