"Digital campaigns are the norm these days."
"Digital campaigns are the norm these days."
If the results of The Center’s latest survey are to be believed, the 2019 senatorial race just got a bit more exciting. Even administration candidates are now scrambling for a place in the Magic 12.
This was after former Senator Bong Revilla’s name was catapulted into the winning circle following his acquittal by the Sandiganbayan. The anti-graft court cleared Revilla of plunder after he was allegedly involved in the controversial pork barrel scam.
In the non-commissioned survey conducted by The Center from Dec. 3 to 9 among 1,200 respondents, only four of the seven incumbents seeking re-election are likely to make it in May 13, 2019.
Of the seven who are seeking a second term, namely: Senators Grace Poe, Cynthia Villar, Nancy Binay, Koko Pimentel, Sonny Angara, Bam Aquino, And JV Ejercito, only Poe, Villar, Binay and Pimentel are sure of winning if the elections were held today, according to The Center.
In The Center’s survey which its Executive Director, Ed Malay says has a margin of error of plus/ minus 3.5 percent and a confidence level in excess of 98 percent, Villar is seen taking the lead in 2019 senatorial polls as Poe slides down to second.
Former Senator Pia Cayeteno and Binay hold on to third and fourth spots, respectively, while another former Senator, Lito Lapid moves up to fifth with Revilla, long given up for lost given his plunder case, gets into the Magic 12 at the expense of Angara.
Former Special Assistant to the President, Bong Go, starts moving up, overtaking Ilocos Norte Gov. Imee Marcos who remains saddled with issues and the recent conviction of her mother former First Lady Imelda Romualdez Marcos. Ejercito and Aquino are seen struggling to keep their Senate posts.
Former Presidential Adviser Francis “Tol” Tolentino remains strong, undaunted by Revilla’s sudden surge to the winning circle.
The Center’s latest survey bared the following results: 1. Villar (62 percent); 2. Poe (59.7 percent); 3. Cayetano (56.3 percent); 4. Binay (50 percent): 5. Lapid (47 percent); 6. Pimentel (44.8 percent); 7. Former Senator Jinggor Estrada (44.2 percent); 8. Former Senator Serge Osmeña (40.3 percent), 9. Tolentino (32 percent); 10. Retired Gen. Bato dela Rosa (29.6 percent), 11. Former Senator Mar Roxas (27 percent); and 12. Revilla (25 percent).
Close on the tails of those in the Magic 12 are: 13. Angara (24.3 percent); 14. Go (23.8 percent); 15, Marcos (21.8 percent); 16. Ejercito (19 percent); 17. Aquino (16.5 percent); and 18. Former Senator Juan Ponce Enrile (15 percent).
However, some political pundits say Revilla’s acquittal might actually do him more harm than good in the forthcoming elections. Basing on the reactions on social media, which Malay said will play a crucial role in the next elections, as it did in the 2018 polls, even staunch critics of the Yellows are critical of Revilla.
This is primarily due to the confusing decision handed down by the Anti-Graft Court. In its decision, which was later clarified by the ponente herself, the court said it had to acquit Revilla, not because he is not guilty, but because the prosecution failed to prove his guilt beyond reasonable doubt.
Thus, the order for the former senator to return P124 million, which even administration supporters claim, was a clear sign of guilt on the part of Revilla.
And while Estrada is praying for a same decision on his similar case, they both could be placed under continuous bombardment of criticism once the campaign proper commences.
And that would spice up the already interesting senatorial race. We will be in for tighter race to the finish.
Nonetheless, Malay said the 2019 senatorial and local polls will also show if the Filipino voters have already matured in the way they elect their political leaders. He said the strong bias towards popularity is evident in the pre-poll survey results as the preference for popularity and name recall remain strong over the credentials or qualifications of candidates.
Malay said the senatorial race will be interesting when the official campaign period starts on Feb. 11, 2019. There seems to be a growing trend in the way that the campaigns of those running next year are being planned and strategized with social media and digital campaigns becoming the norm over the traditional campaign processes.