We are not alone

"Calm down and count your blessings."

Those who have been haranguing the Duterte administration for the country’s slower-than-earlier-predicted growth rate of just above 6 percent for 2018 which has somehow affected the consumer and business

outlook in the fourth quarter should probably calm down and start counting our blessings.

We are not alone. As a matter of fact, we may be one of a dozen or so countries in the Asia-Pacific region,

actually make that globally, which will register such growth rate this year in the midst of a highly volatile economic environment.

In the Asean, for example, only Vietnam will probably register a similar if not only a slightly higher growth rate than the Philippines. The rest will most probably be stuck within the 2-5 percent bandwidth, if at all. The two fastest growing countries in the Asia-Pacific region, possibly the world, and the most populous as well (whew)-—China and India—are expected to slow down to the 6-6.5 percent levels after registering higher growth rates for the fast five years or so.

In the case of China, this will be the third year it did not register a double-digit growth rate in the last decade. Which is expected given the uncertainties related to its ongoing “trade war” with the United States initiated by the Trump administration in the runup to the that country’s just-concluded midterm elections.

That huge break in otherwise cozy US-China trade relations, however, has somehow eased and is expected to remain so at least within the first quarter of the coming year after Presidents Trump and Xi Jiping

had a “good conversation” at the recent G-20 Summit in Buenos Aires, the threat of a big, this time irreparable, break which can really bring the global markets to a huge tailspin remains. Already, China’s manufacturing output has registered a slowdown. Its imports of iron ore, one of the critical indicators of the state of its economy, has also fallen for the second month in a row. Reports indicate that iron ore imports were down 2.4 percent in November. For the past 11 months the iron ore imports of the world’s leading steel manufacturer (iron ore is a key input in steel production) was down slightly from 991 million tons

last year to only 971 million tons this year.

India’s economy is in similar straits. Manufacturing is down, consumer spending is also slowing down. The trade in gold which is a key indicator of the health of the Indian economy has reportedly slowed down as well. Even the much-awaited construction boom announced early this year by Prime Minister Modi has not materialized as promised.

Japan, the world’s third-largest economy, is also in the same situation. Latest data culled from the otherwise buoyant manufacturing sector have been less than sunny. Business confidence of the big manufacturers showed that confidence of a sustained economic recovery after years of deflation is ebbing. A Reuters report that uncertainties fueled by the yet-to-be-resolved US-China trade war has fueled pessimism on the outlook for growth in the global economy.  The Reuters report indicated that business confidence is seen worsening in the coming quarter amidst a fall in household spending and a drop in real wages adding to concerns about the strength of the Japanese economy. Worse, there are now rumors of another round of devastating deflation which has hounded Japan for years and which has produced a bevy of short lived governments in the process.

So, it’s not as if reports about Philippine companies being less optimistic with regard to expansion and hiring of new workers for the first quarter of 2019 is confined and limited and, worse, a failing of the Duterte administration. It is a global phenomenon and even if the factors may differ from one country to the other, there is every reason to believe that everybody is somehow caught up in a growing business pessimism amid a turbulent environment worldwide. Even the continued decline in the price of crude oil, although most welcome, remains  a supposition which has yet to translate into a higher level of confidence. That said, it behooves on those who continue to ascribe to the administration the gloom that is setting to start rethinking their spiels. Things may not be as bright as we would like it to be but it is not as gloomy as these guys are hoping it should be. While we are navigating through these tricky times it is not wise or even proper to start contributing to the gloom by spreading fear and wishing the country an even worse 2019. The public is not easy to be taken by such gestures and will remember those who have nothing but negative things to say at a time when all of us should come around and do the best we all can to ensure that we don’t suffer the fate of those in other countries who have gone through worse times