"Which senators are independent, subservient and flexible?"
Last week the President of the Senate made a declaration that no Senate head had ever felt a need to make in the history of that chamber. Senator Vicente Sotto III declared that the Senate of the incoming Congress—the Eighteenth—would not be a rubber-stamp of Malacañang.
Senator Sotto made that declaration in the face of widespread belief that the Senate “supermajority” resulting from the recent election—eleven winning Senators endorsed by Hugpong ng Pagbabago ng Pilipinas (HNP) and its parent, PDP-Laban, added to the nine senators serving out their term—would be either subservient, or highly sympathetic, to the administration of President Duterte. “The Senate of the Eighteenth Congress will be independent from Malacañang,” Mr. Sotto said with utmost seriousness.
Can the 20 ladies and gentlemen be expected to be un-independent in the performance of the duties of senators of the Republic? Or are they likely to function like lackeys, giving their assent to all of President Duterte’s wishes?
The way to approach these questions is to disaggregate the incoming Senate, i.e., to take a close look at the senators—their backgrounds, their philosophies and their personalities—and assign each of them to one of three categories. The categories are ‘Independent-minded,’ ‘Subservient to Malacañang’ and ‘Flexible.’ As the adjective connotes, senators who are ‘Independent’ vote on the basis of conscience and principle, supporting Duterte administration proposals and initiatives that are meritorious and disdaining those that are not. The classification ‘Subservient to Malacañang’ needs no explanation.
‘Flexible’ senators are those who are neither ‘Independent’ nor ‘Subservient to Malacañang’. They do not always cast their votes on the basis of principle or conscience. Essentially ‘Flexible’ senators are opportunists: they will support a Duterte administration proposal when it suits their interests, and they will oppose a Duterte administration proposal when their interests stand to be prejudiced. As President Duterte’s term winds down, and as the present occupant of Malacañang edges closer to lame-duck status, the ‘Flexible’ senators will less and less be hesitant about withholding support from Malacañang.
Judging from their track records in and outside the government, who among the Eighteenth Congress senators are likely to be ‘Independent’, ‘Subservient to Malacañang’ and ‘Flexible’?
Let’s begin with the senators who are likely to be subservient to President Duterte. Two of the candidates who Mr. Duterte personally endorsed in the election, Christopher Go and Gen. Rolando ‘Bato’ dela Rosa, are diehard Duterte men. So is Manny Pacquiao. During his previous term as senator, Lito Lapid made no effort to become, or claim to be regarded as, a good senator; things are unlikely to have changed. Ramon Revilla Jr. has shown that he has no strong ethical moorings.
The senators who are likely to live up to the ‘Independent’ classification. Having waged her two Senatorial campaigns as a no-party candidate, Grace Poe can afford to function independently. Panfilo Lacson Jr. has on a few occasions sided with the Duterte administration—the most recent was his participation in the recent rebuke to three critical visiting US Senators who expressed support for Sen. Leila de Lima and Rappler CEO Maria Ressa—but by and large he has been an independent-minded Senator. Aquilino Pimentel Jr. can be adjudged to have passed the ‘Has he conducted himself independently?’ test with fairly-high-flying colors.
Lastly, there are the senators who are likely to be ‘Flexible.’ Senators who are not ‘Subservient to Malacañang’ and have not shown themselves to be generally ‘Independent’ fall under this classification. They comprise the biggest group; there are 12 ‘Flexible’ Senators, of whom five have just been reelected or elected.
The twelve Senators who are likely to be flexible in matters involving Malacañang are Cynthia Villar, Pia Cayetano, Sonny Angara, Francis Tolentino, Imee Marcos, Nancy Binay, Vicente Sotto III, Ralph Recto, Richard Gordon, Miguel Zubiri, Sherwin Gatchalian and Joel Villanueva. The newly reelected/elected Senators are Villar, Cayetano, Angara, Tolentino, Marcos and Binay. As previously stated, President Duterte cannot count on the on-every-occasion support of the ‘Flexible’ senators and senators-elect; they will support Malacañang when it will be in their interest to do so. The factors that will figure in their decision-making regarding Malacañang initiatives and requests will include fear of reprisal (especially for senators with business affiliations), the need to protect reelection prospects (for those who will be seeking reelection in 2022), a quest for in-return political or economic benefits from the Duterte administration and a desire to stay on generally good terms with Mr. Duterte.
Given the foregoing disaggregation of the Senate and classification of the senators, can it be said that independence in the Eighteenth Congress Senate is a lost cause and that the Filipino people can expect only subservience to Malacañang from that body? And does President Duterte have the so-called Senate supermajority in his pocket. The answer to these and similar questions is No.
Two numbers are decisive in the work of the Senate. One is the number 13; that’s the number of votes that a bill needs for approval by the Senate. The other number is 16; that’s the number of votes required for favorable Senate action on matters that require a two-thirds majority, such as the amendment of the Constitution or the ratification of a treaty. Since it can only be sure of the votes of the ‘Subservient to Malacañang’ senators, the Duterte administration will have to seek the support of at least eight ‘Independent’ and ‘Flexible’ senators; that support will not always be forthcoming, especially where controversial issues like the restoration of the death penalty are concerned. It goes without saying that getting the votes needed for the approval of two-thirds-majority matters, the Duterte administration will have to successfully woo at least 11 other senators. Where the matter needing the Senate’s approval is very weighty—an amendment to the Constitution, for instance—the wooing may not be successful.
It may be called a supermajority, but the incoming Senate cannot be dismissed as Malacañang’s rubber-stamp. The chamber’s president, Senator Sotto, can be believed when he says that the Eighteenth Congress Senate will not be a rubber-stamp. A senator has a national mandate. More important, Rodrigo Roa Duterte’s term is slowly but surely drawing to a close.