The difficulties that the British government has been experiencing in its quest for an acceptable Brexit (British exit from the European Union) deal has given rise to three questions about the United Kingdom’s EU-membership referendum and its aftermath. The first question is, is the 52 percent of the British electorate who voted in favor of Brexit fully appreciative of the implications of the vote that they cast? The second question is, did they anticipate the difficulties and complexities that Prime Minister Theresa May and her Cabinet are facing at the hands of the EU’s Brexit negotiators? And the third question – one that is increasingly being asked – is, would the British cast a different Brexit vote if another referendum were held today?
The pro-Brexit voters must have known that putting an end to a 47-year relationship between Britain and the EU would be complicated, but, judging from the British public’s reaction to the initial round of negotiations, they apparently did not expect them to be that complicated. The first round of negotiations has taken up only three issues – the UK’s unpaid obligations to the UK and of British nationals residing in the EU countries and the border between EU member Ireland and the British territory of Northern Ireland – and after each negotiating session the British delegation has gone to great lengths to suggest that the discussions produced substantial progress.
Clearly, the UK is finding itself at a disadvantage in the Brexit negotiations. As the party wishing to leave, the UK has to manifest sufficient justification – legal, financial and social – for seeking a divorce from the EU. And it is having to overcome the psychological disadvantage of being perceived to be an unreasonable and arrogant former partner.
The 52 percent of the electorate that voted in favor of Brexit – the “leavers,” as they are generally called – are undoubtedly sympathetic with the current travails of Theresa May and Co. But I dare say that those who voted against Brexit are somewhat resentful of the way that Britain is being treated by the EU; after all, Britain, right or wrong, is their country.
Did the leavers fully anticipate the complexities and difficulties of the negotiations in which Theresa May & Co. are now engaged? Almost certainly not. Most of them probably thought that, as one of the EU’s largest members, Britain could simply declare that it wanted a divorce and let the details be worked out by its erstwhile partners. They are now finding out – and Theresa May is telling them – that the divorce from the EU, like any divorce, is a complicated and messy process, calling for toughness on Britain’s part.
Is Britain over a barrel – as the Niagara Falls-related expression goes – in the Brexit negotiations? Maybe not over a barrel, for Britain is not without good cards to play. But Britain is definitely facing tough challenges.
Which brings me to the third questions I spoke about at the start of this column.
Given another chance, would the leavers vote anew to take the UK out of the EU? My assessment is No. I dare say that many of the leavers, like the architects of Brexit, were overcome by feelings of bravado and chutzpah and thought that Britain could thumb its nose at Western Europe and dictate the terms of its departure from their 47-year-old union. They were wrong. They did not realize – and they did not want to realize – that the EU could play hard ball. That’s the game that the Germans, the French and the other Western Europeans are now playing.
Some leavers may well be asking themselves at this point: If it wasn’t really broke, did we have to Brexit?
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