By Joey Salgado
President Duterte threw heavy shade at Vice President Leni Robredo a few days ago, tagging her with the dreaded “I” word. The knee jerk response from her partisans was to proclaim “no, she’s not incompetent!” and “look who’s talking.” On social media, they posted photos of the vice president talking to children and poor folk. Reminder: Photo ops do not prove competence. Experience does. That’s what the President was saying.
The vice president’s retort, however, was on point. Instead of insulting her and God (magka-level kayo, ma’am?), the President should focus on improving the economy. Ouch.
The President’s verbal attack on the vice president came just a few hours after she declared that she will now lead a united opposition. That statement was an open declaration of political war with the President, a risky move considering that the President has only been in power for two years.
Why did the vice president initiate the hostilities? The most recent Social Weather Stations survey would be the most obvious reason. The President’s ratings dropped by 11 percent, a personal record low attributed by analysts to discontent over rising prices and his “stupid God” remark uttered during the survey period. The Liberal Party, itching for a comeback, smells blood.
But why hold a press briefing to make the announcement? Isn’t the vice president acknowledged as the de facto opposition leader?
I would hazard that a public declaration needed to be made in order to regain the mantle of opposition leadership from a most unlikely competitor: The glib and, let’s admit it, media-savvy former chief justice Lourdes Sereno.
No two personalities could be polar opposites. Where Robredo’s persona is formal to the point of sleep-inducing, Sereno’s is colorful and entertaining. Just watch her interviews or speeches: Hand gestures, facial expressions and the public speaking style of one touched by the Divine.
And while Robredo and the liberals have kept to themselves in a bizarre exercise of political inbreeding or isolationism, Sereno has embraced all colors, including the political left. And she has been consistently blasting the President for her ouster and for the ills facing the country. The vice president, on the other hand, has chosen to stay below the radar. Lastly, Robredo has remained coy about her future political plans. Sereno has expressed her openness to enter politics.
Thus, the public announcement and the emphasis on leading a united opposition, embracing all groups and forces opposed to the President.
The looming battleground will be the 2019 midterm elections. The opposition is banking on the President’s ratings sliding even further. The lower the rating, the weaker the political capital and endorsement power. Under such a scenario, they believe that the likelihood of a strong opposition showing in the polls becomes higher.
But that would be a rather simplistic, one track reading of the evolving political landscape.
For one, public opinion is fickle. It is true that the President dismissed the SWS results, saying he doesn’t care about ratings. That could just be public posturing. It would be risky for any leader to ignore public opinion as expressed through surveys, especially when you have major initiatives to push, such as federalism. No one wants to be a lame duck this early in his term. For all we know, the President’s men are meeting right now to find ways to turn the numbers around.
Second, the latest pre-election surveys are dominated by incumbents and familiar political names. With the exception of Bam Aquino, none of them come from the Liberals. Two of the names in the winning circle are openly identified with the President while the rest are incumbent senators and returning former senators from different political parties.
Senatorial elections are all about name recall and affinity with the voters. In this, the incumbents and returning senators have a distinct edge. The names being floated as opposition bets.…sorry, did I just doze off?
It seems that the Liberals are keen on encouraging protest votes. Simply stated, if you are disenchanted or simply hate the incumbent, vote for us. It doesn’t matter if our candidates are as interesting as ashtrays, or if crooked deals were our thing during our self-righteous Daang Matuwid reign. The Liberals should know it just doesn’t work that way.
If the midterms are traditionally a referendum on the incumbent, it is expected of the incumbent to muster all the resources available to him to ensure a credible showing for his candidates, which may include incumbents from other political parties. Let’s face it. No opposition party can match the resources of the ruling administration. The Liberal Party knows this. They perfected the template during their glory days.
Traditionally, the President and the vice president, especially when they come from opposing parties, observe an unwritten rule of conduct where they are, at least, civil to each other. The vice president’s early declaration of leading the opposition discards the niceties. So expect more toxic exchanges in the coming days between the President and the vice president and from their surrogates. And while the political gods bicker and throw thunderbolts at each other, the masses will have to bear with high prices, traffic, flash floods, and killers on the loose. As for me, I’ll probably tune in to the political telenovela starring the two highest leaders of the land only when there’s nothing good on Netflix.
Joey Salgado is a former journalist and media consultant for several government agencies, public personalities and private corporations. He served as media director and spokesman for former vice president Jejomar Binay.